Horse Population

Below is a grading from A through F for consistent horse population at a given track.  Tracks rated A will have few shippers, however most likely have few big stakes races or generous purses and therefore generous pools to bet into.  Again, this isn't ranking the best tracks, but one's with the most consistent horse populations.  One factor is a robust statebred program.  Tracks like Saratoga and Oaklawn may have horses ship in from all jurisdictions for overnight races and stakes, but typically lesser horses that are eligible for statebred programs will stay where the money is.  Tracks rated F will have horses shipped in from everywhere, think the Breeder's Cup as the best corollary.



NEW YORK
Aqueduct - I'm probably in the minority of readers in that I miss the inner dirt meet during the winter.  Many of the big horses ship down to Florida for the winter, but I cut my teeth on these races.  Aqueduct is most stable of the three NYRA tracks in terms of horse population and has the fewest major stakes. Grade: B

Belmont - Hosting the Belmont Stakes and the Fall Championship meet attract many of the top horses in training, so while they may be shipping in from far flung jurisdictions, most of these horses have squared off before.  Grade: B-

Finger Lakes - ...AND THERE THEY GOOOO... accompanies the start of every race, thanks to track announcer Tony Calo.  Horses ship in from NYRA, Presque Isle, Fort Erie, Tampa and I'm sure a few other places.  But once they get here, they stay.  Grade: C

Saratoga - The crown jewel in the NYRA crown and my favorite track boasts a small city to support the massive horse population stabled here, shipped in from all over the country and an enormous stakes barn.  Add to that a tremendous amount of unpredictable two-year-olds and the Spa could get an F for horse population.  But a robust state-bred program, a three-year-old series and coveted handicap races give it back a few points.  Grade: D



NEW JERSEY and MASSACHUSETTS
Meadowlands TB
Monmouth - I'll count these two as one since the Meadowlands meet is called Monmouth @ the Meadowlands and essentially just 6 more turf races a day.  A boutique meet within a boutique meet!  These horses ship up from Florida and Maryland, down from NY and East from Pennsylvania, add a weak state-bred program.  On the plus side are a few grade one stakes in the Haskell Invitational for three-year-olds and the United Nations on the turf and the fact the meet is long enough for horses to knock heads atleast twice.  Grade: D

Suffolk - Here's another example of a track getting a great score from HANA but it's a boutique meet with a goofy turf course, inconsistent timing, etc.  And last year the camera work was atrocious.  A few big names ship up their B or C stringers though like Bill Mott and Christophe Clement. Grade: F



MARYLAND/DELAWARE
Delaware - A nice boutique-ish meet finds a deep main track and lush turf and Arabian races.  The horse population can be small as nearby Parx and Laurel run simultaneously, but that's good for our purposes.  Grade: B

Laurel
Pimlico - Essentially the same circuit, unfortunately for Laurel, Pimlico is like his cooler older brother at a party who shows up for a hot minute, gets all the attention and peels out.  I'm unaware of any state-bred program and horses ship in from all over, even though they hold the Preakness, I'm not sure this is enough to boost their score.  Grade: C-



PENNSYLVANIA
Parx - The former Philadelphia Park is an odd bird for us.  One of the best state-bred programs in the country, if not the best, encourage PA breds to stay at home; yet if they go out seeking fortune and fame they can still return with a nice late-summer racing festival.  Twelve months of racing ensure the same characters will butt heads plenty.  But horses do ship in from all the surrounding circuits at all levels.  Grade: B+

Penn National - Much like other low level tracks, the horse population stays so stable that you'll see the same horses for years.  Add on to that a very robust state-bred program and there's literally no reason for horses to leave, yet no reason for horses to ship in to open company.  Add into this a few nice graded stakes races in the summer and a 12 month racing schedule you've got one of the top tracks for our purposes here today.  Even though I hate Pennsylvania racing in general.  Grade: A

Presque Isle - A summer boutique meet when horse populations are already spread thin.  This track pulls from all over.  However, I have noticed the same horses ship in year after year, so that's worth a point.  Grade: D+



FLORIDA
Gulfstream
Gulfstream Park West - GPW is the old Calder Racetrack, but now the two are essentially the same circuit.  Florida doesn't really need a state-bred program as the #2 producer of foals nationally, but there are a few races carded.  The winter is dedicated to the boutique-y Championship Meet and dominated by the Pegasus World Cup and three-year-old Derby trail.  Due to the length of the meet, you may see the same runners a few times, so I'll give it a point for that.  Grade: D

Tampa Bay - the other track in Florida, but this one has a more stable horse population.  Horses of a certain class tend to square off all the time.  And that's the goal of this project.  Grade: C



KENTUCKY AND ADJACENT
Churchill Downs -Somehow the home of the Derby has turned into two boutique meets in the land of the boutiques, Kentucky.  No state-bred program or three-year-old path to the derby give earn them Grade: F

Ellis Park - Kentucky's summer boutique is the place to send your two-year-olds.  Grade: F

Keeneland - the first starts of the two-year-old season and horses shipping in from everywhere.  Grade: F

Kentucky Downs - Impossible to handicap horse population.  Grade: Z

Turfway - Why is this longest running meet in Kentucky?  These horses knock heads for four months.  There is a two race three-year-old derby trail and only one surface, even if it's frozen sometimes.  Grade: B-

Indiana Grand Racecourse - I'll throw this one in with Kentucky because it's lonely.  That and you'll see horses come out of Keeneland to run here.  A state-bred program is in the beginning stages of development.  Grade: C


OHIO
Belterra - I have literally never handicapped this track Grade: INC

Mahoning Valley - Nice big fields at a lower level are the main attraction.  Horses ship in from all over and for some reason Godolphin has starters here.  Add in a state bred program and you've got nice horses, but it doesn't really fit for our purposes.  Grade: C

Thistledown - Belterra all over again for me.  Grade: INC



ILLINOIS
Fairmount - the dirt track in Illinois sees a lot of horses fall into their jurisdiction from all over.  A flailing state-bred program can't help.  Grade: C

Hawthorne - The Woodbine of the Midwest (I just made that up but feel free to spread it around like warm butter) has a synthetic track and funky turf course that sees all kinds of international runners ship in for their Millions.  Grade C-



NORTH MIDWEST
Canterbury Park - Is kind of an anomaly on this list.  It's not really near any other tracks and the one track that you will see a lot of horses ship in from is in Arizona.  Add a nice state-bred program and you'll see these same horses knock heads plenty.  Grade: A

Prairie Meadows - Again, kind of an isolated track, but has a burgeoning state-bred program.  Horses ship from all over, thanks to owner Maggi Moss, although she's kind of curtailed her efforts in the past few years.  Grade: C+

Hazel - Michigan's only track as far as I know.  And that's all I know.  Grade: Inc.



LOUISIANA
Delta Downs
Evangeline Downs
Fair Grounds
Louisiana Downs - It feels like these four tracks run all the time and concurrently with horses shipping from track to track, but since this is a lower level circuit with a state-bred program, I'd wager the same foes battle each other consistently.  Since only two of the tracks have a turf course and they are constantly rained off, the horses that do face each other I'm sure ONLY face each other.  In addition, Fair Grounds has a decent three-year-old series.  Grade: B+



TEXAS
Lone Star - Remind me how this track got to host the Breeder's Cup again?  If only these Texas tracks didn't get shippers in from all over the south  Grade: B-

Retama - Low level track with state-breds?  Seems like that will always earn you at least Grade: B-

Sam Houston - My favorite track in Texas sees horses ship in from all over.  Grade: C



OKLAHOMA and ARKANSAS
Fair Meadows Tulsa
Will Rogers - These two form a little fair-type circuit with horses falling down to their level from all over the south and midwest.  Grade: C

Remington Park - Huge fields and shippers from all over the midwest and south make for a complicated horse population.  State-breds and grass give it a few points, however.  Grade: C+

Oaklawn Park - Horses ship in from all over for full fields all winter long.  But a great three-year-old campaign and mind-boggling state-bred program see some horses only square off here. 
Grade: B-



CANADA
Assiniboia
Hastings - Somewhat isolated tracks in Winnipeg and Vancouver, Canada.  Once I saw a horse from Hastings in the Breeder's Cup Marathon, but I can't imagine many horses shipping back across the border for their limited stakes programs.  I think Doug O'Neill likes shipping up to Hastings for a graded stake though for some reason.  Prove me wrong.  Grade: A

Fort Erie - home to the middle jewel of the Canadian Triple Crown, seems to have a dedicated horse population with horses shipping out to various US tracks, but you don't see much coming the other way.  The better one's try out the synthetic up at Woodbine  Grade: A

Woodbine - The home of horse racing in Canada, it boasts a few races that attract international competitors to ship across the pond and across the St Lawrence.  While a few trainers take their string down to Florida for the winter, a solid Canada-bred program allows many of the horses to stay at the farm for the winter.  Grade: B



SOCAL AND ADJACENT
Del Mar
Los Alamitos TB
Santa Anita - These three tracks are circuit with plenty of relocating between the three, which keeps a healthy horse population and a few track specialists.  Plenty of shipping in from other countries and jursdictions, including numerous graded and listed stakes, ensures fresh blood as well.  But we don't want that.  XD  On the plus side, there is plenty of state-bred racing and a three-year-old path to the derby (maybe not this year).  Add to that most of the overnight horses beat each other up on the regular throughout the Santa Anita season.  Grade: Del Mar: D
                                               Los Alamitos TB: B-
                                               Santa Anita: C+

Golden Gate - Northern California's main track sees mostly SoCal cast offs, which can make this tricky to handicap upon their arriving.  But for the most part it sees a pretty stable population.  Grade: B

Turf Paradise - like it's counterpart, Canterbury Park, it's not really near much but you do see SoCal cast offs and New Mexico horses ship in, add to that the Canterbury horses wintering and you get an odd mix.  Speaking of odd, those maiden optional claimers... Grade: C



NORTHWEST
Emerald Downs
Portland Meadows - I have to be completely honest, outside of mindlessly watching a bunch of PM cards while working at an OTB and catching a few races of ED on TVG, I have never really handicapped these tracks.  But they're so isolated and with a diminished purse structure, I have to imagine no horses really ship into these tracks.  So this grade is essentially based on a hunch I have.  Grade: A



WEST VIRGINIA
Charles Town
Mountaineer - once we get to these two, it's safe to say we've reached the end.  Bolstered by a state-bred program and constant racing these tracks might have the most stable horse populations in the US.  I've rarely if ever seen a horse shipped out of here, save the recent ascension of Late Night Pow-wow.  Add the Charles Town Classic and West Virginia Breeders cards and you're really talking about a top notch circuit for our purposes.  Again, I'm not ranking the quality of the horse populations, but the stability and handicapp-ability.  Grade: A



NEW MEXICO
Albuquerque
Ruidoso
Sunland
Sun Ray
Zia - These five New Mexico tracks have a circuit and while I'll see a few horses ship OUT of there, I don't often see many horses ship IN, with the exception of the Sunland Derby.  Therefore, I will award a grade of A to them.

Arapahoe - Colorado's only track as far as I know.  And that's all I know.  Grade: Inc.

New Initiative

Yo dudes!  I hope you've been enjoying the free pp's i've correlated for ya'llz!  While I'll maintain updating the free pps (people LOVE free stuff), I'll also be enacting a new initiative, which will hopefully help fill in some blanks in the handicapping process.  Massive holes that I see in informing the public about the product.  I'd love to hear your feedback, so feel free to reach out to me at my e-mail: Roadtothekentuckyderby@gmail.com

There are countless great books and websites that teach you about handicapping.  From how to read the past performances to the nuances of pedigree and all topics in between.  There's not much ground that hasn't been covered already.  But all of these books attempt to handicap in a vacuum.  As though any track is just like any other, like every pool is just like every other pool at every other track.  And if you've been in the game for a minute, you know not every track or race is like any other.  But as Mark Twain once said "History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes."  

The goal of this project is not to find tracks and races that rhyme most often. But to find tracks that can be clearly seen to be rhyming. In other words, to find the best tracks to handicap and ones that have the fewest barriers to handicapping. The best places to apply your knowledge gleaned from the myriad of other books on the subject.

The Horseplayer's Association of North America has done extensive work on addressing this subject already with their track rankings, the most recent were published in 2017. HANA takes into account seven factors in determining their single digit "composite rating." While this is a great start to figuring out the problem of "what track(s) should I handicap" it is rooted solely in numbers. Pool size, field size, takeout, etc... are quantifiable attributes of a track. So if the HANA rankings were taken on face value, the best places to "invest" your money would be Kentucky Downs. Kentucky Downs, with it's huge pools and field sizes combined with it's low takeout are surely a horseplayer's dream!

This got me thinking, Kentucky Downs is nearly impossible to handicap. It's unique course layout, undulating turf, and uphill final furlong are more reminiscent of a European course. Projecting which horses should run well on the course wouldn't as be much of a problem if the horse population all shipped in from the same jurisdiction. With monumental purses, horses are shipped in from all over the country. Familiarity with more than a few horses in each race is a rarity and attainable by all but the few most studied handicappers. The short meet doesn't allow for detailed study of replays, as very few horses will run twice during the meet. And even if they did run multiple times, the horrific television coverage with two stretch run cameras can be disorienting and deceiving. While the HANA rankings indicate Kentucky Downs to be the best BETTING track, I find it might be the worst HANDICAPPING track. It's hard to get the track to rhyme.

So this is where we will start. What are the unquantifiable factors in handicapping a track? I've already detailed a few, but there must be innumerable factors. For this project we will limit the factors to a few categories. Let's start with the most important part of horse racing, the HORSE. More specifically the HORSE POPULATION.

Race horses are bred all over the world and all over this great country of ours (USA!  USA!) and race horses ship to all corners of the globe, while all but the most international of globe trotting horses stay at a particular jurisdiction.  Think the NYRA circuit of Belmont, Aqueduct and Saratoga or SoCal's Santa Anita, Los Alamitos and Del Mar or South Florida's Gulfstream Park and Gulfstream Park West.  There are even a few tracks that stand alone and are their own jurisdiction and not really part of any circuit, like Emerald Downs.  But just as the Aqueduct claimer will ship to Finger Lakes, the Emerald Downs stakes winner may ship to SoCal.

When it comes to stakes, clearly horses will ship coast to coast for the biggest purses.  For the most part even these prized horses will knock heads with the same company.  Three year old colts duke it out starting in January to see who will get in the gate on the First Saturday in May and then compete in the three Triple Crown races.  So by the end of this season in early June, you really understand who is who and what each can accomplish on the track.  You've come to know a lot about each competitor, from breeding to distance limitations to gate habits to running styles, etc...

HORSE POPULATION therefore, extends not just to the particular horses permanently stabled at the track, but also the horses that run against each other numerous times in a stakes series.  Knowing a HORSE POPULATION is one of the biggest factors in my personal handicapping.  To know a horse means that is one less horse that you have to understand and that saves valuable time.  I recall the track handicapper at Hong Kong track Sha-Tin boast a gaudy 43% win percentage, a feat he chalked up to HORSE POPULATION.  Horses ship in to Sha-Tin and only race there and the other track in Hong Kong and that's pretty much it!  While the fields are massive by US standards and the pools dwarf any action we could conceive and the past performances incomprehensible, this man watched the races, studied the horse population and killed it because he knew that few if any new horses would ship into the jurisdiction.  Many horses race their entire careers and only know the two tracks.

While it's possible to quantify a horse population at a track, I don't think that's indicative of what I'm trying to achieve here.  What I'm looking for is a relatively stable population with few competitive shippers.  Therefore boutique meets like Kentucky Downs or Keeneland or Gulfstream's Championship Meet with horses shipping in from every jurisdiction in the world can take a long time to decipher the pp's.  So for my first foray into this new venture, I'll grade each track's horse population with regards to HORSE POPULATION stability and give a little blurb about what I think is going on with each track.  I would appreciate any feedback you can offer, again my e-mail address is: Roadtothekentuckyderby@gmail.com

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