IROQUOIS STAKES - Churchill Downs 1/16m
As track announcer Mark Johnson tells us, the Road to the Kentucky Derby started where it will end up, Churchill Downs. 10 points to the winners of each of these races.
TRIP NOTES: 34/1 shot Cleburne recieved a perfect trip behind a blistering pace to nose out maiden, Tapiture and hard charging Smart Cover. If you're a Beyer fig fan, the Dixie Union colt clocked a meager 69. XD Hard to argue that if the race were just ten feet longer Smart Cover would take the field by a length.
GOING FORWARD: Last year's winner, Ontario-bred Uncaptured, went on to follow up with a win the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes before falling off the derby trail. That sort of illustrates the pointlessness of the two year old races leading up the Derby, so I wouldn't take too much forward out of the race, except Smart Cover looked the best as the field fell apart in the stretch.
FRONT RUNNER STAKES - Santa Anita 1/16m
TRIP NOTES: Again a blistering pace paves the way for rail skimming trip down the backstretch before the colt from Mineshaft, Bond Holder, popped out and broke his maiden at 11/1 for trainer Doug O'Neill, earning a 78 Beyer. Included in this field was eventual Speakeasy Stakes winner at 6F, Can the Man, the Baffert trainee appears to be serious company perhaps giving this race some weight.
GOING FORWARD: Wearing down a large, quality field of 10 and looking great doing it, this horse appears to have a future routing, but this victory wasn't a world beater and for a speedy Santa Anita track the final time is disappointing despite the trouble-free trip. Last year's winner, Power Broker, went on to throw a few clunkers in the Grey Gooser Breeder's Futurity and Santa Anita Derby before falling off the Derby trail and most recently took down the G2 Indiana Derby.
DIXIANA BREEDERS FUTURITY - Keeneland 1 1/16m
TRIP NOTES: Same story as the last two, the Ontario-bred son of Artie Schiller, saved ground to mow down speedy front runners on the poly at Keeneland, which is saying something, but the final fractions and final times are disappointing. The Beyer fig earned of 70 is nothing that will get the winning team of superstars John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher and Ken Ramsey fired up.
GOING FORWARD: Watching this horse break its maiden at the Spa didn't instill with me any confidence and this performance is more of the same. Given last year's winner, Joha, hasn't won a race since this one and has merely placed in ungraded stakes company, you're not looking for Seattle Slew to come out of this race. Perhaps this March foal isn't done maturing, but I think we've seen the best this horse has to offer.
CHAMPAGNE STAKES - Belmont 1m
TRIP NOTES: Pressing the front runner of a blistering pace, this April colt from Dunkirk, Havana, took over in the stretch and staved off a late rally from deep closer Honor Code, earning a 93 Beyer. Honor Code spun wide and nearly got up to nip Havana at the wire and looks like the superior horse at this distance or longer, but Havana's speed is undeniable. He had just enough gas to get the job done on the gold rail at Belmont.
GOING FORWARD: Havana came close to breaking the Saratoga track record at 5 1/2f in his debut and followed it up with a G1 win and points on the derby trail. This one-two finish with Honor Code foreshadows some classic duels down the road. The NYRA two year olds appear head and shoulders above the other around country, however one turn mile at Belmont form has trouble translating to two turns at other venues. If this horse cannot rate effectively, he'll never make a classic distance at two turns like the Derby and may be better suited to the sprints. Either way, Todd Pletcher will have this horse well placed down the road and like most Pletcher trainees figures to go off at odds-on in a few of them. Last year's winner needs no introduction, Shanghai Bobby, who went undefeated as a juvenile before throwing a clunker in the Florida Derby. Pletcher put him on the shelf for six months, only bringing him back last month with a score in the Aljamin Stakes at Belmont.
GREY STAKES - Woodbine 1 1/16m
TRIP NOTES: You'd think a G3 with derby points would attract more than a four horse field but that's what we found north of the border. Our winner at 3/2, out of Harlan's Holiday, sat off an honest pace to easily mow down the longshot front runner and earn an 80 Beyer.
GOING FORWARD: Ami's Holiday, showed the patience and tactical speed necessary to get this distance and even stretch out. However, this was on Woodbine's Poly track, so who can tell how this form will translate to the dirt, but this was certainly a nice victory. Next time out though, imagine more traffic and/or hotter pace and perhaps we have a different story.
