SHAM STAKES - Santa Anita 1m
A short field of six heads to the gate this Saturday in Southern California, with more than a few making a surface switch. Seventeen points are up for grabs on The Road to the Kentucky Derby!
PREVIEW: This race begins with the likely post time favorite for Bob Baffert and Mike Smith, the highly touted, MIDNIGHT HAWK, who has crept up on everyone's derby watch list since his scintillating six length debut win going seven and a half furlongs over the synthetic, late in Hollywood Park's last ever meet. The son of Midnight Lute broke poorly, was hustled up to the quarter pole, Smith sought cover, letting the two inside horses over take him, before comfortably blasting them back to Pomona at the eighth pole. He's been firing bullets over the main track at Santa Anita, so the surface shouldn't be a concern. He loses the blinkers, so if he doesn't join the pace, he'll destroy this weak field. Mike Smith has been on fire this meet and last year won a ridiculous amount of grade ones and I think this Baffert fella might have a future as a trainer or something.
Next we'll go just inside of Midnight Hawk to a horse from much less known connections, but who ran just as incredible a race, a debut winner for trainer R. Kory Owens, TOP FORTITUDE. Jockey Kyla Stra found some traffic at the far turn, and bottled up before checking back, making a solid middle move going three wide on the turn, over taking the blistering pace setters. The Arizona bred has been training over the main track, firing a bullet in October. He hasn't raced in 56 days with Owens going 5/32 with a 45-90 day layoff, so it shouldn't be much of an issue. Looks like he could use an extra furlong or two.
Inside of Top Fortitude is the multiple stakes placed son of Tapit, ONTOLOGY. Trainer Simon Callaghan rushed this colt to the track, entering it in four graded stakes and two ungraded stakes before recently breaking its maiden on the turf. The Reddam Racing owned colt likes to press the pace and shows good early speed on the grass, an angle I like in the surface switch, but zonked out in the Grade 1 Front Runner over this same track after tracking the pace closely in a big field. He didn't handle the first turn well at all, perhaps not anticipating the give of the main track. The one-two-three finishers were Bond Holder, Dance with Fate and Tamarando, nice company, he held his own until the stretch. Throw that race out and I think you'll get a nice price on this horse, who might perform better with less traffic around him. A big question mark still looms large, though, and will be answered Saturday.
In the three hole, Jerry Hollendorfer saddles LIFE IS A JOY. A homebred son of Globalize who started his career with three straight wins, topping it off with the Charlie Palmer Futurity at Fresno, winning by six lengths over eight furlongs, so distance on the dirt isn't an issue here. Last out, he was second best in a state bred stakes, but that was over the synth at Hollywood Park. However, his last out in the dirt, again against state breds, he slightly stumbled at the start before closing late among a pack of finishers. If LIFE IS A JOY can break cleanly and run this race, he will be in the money. Jockey Nakatani is a great rider, but his aggressive style is always a concern for DQ's.
The other son of Tapit in this short field is I'LL WRAP IT UP for Derby winning trainer, Doug O'Neill. Hard to imagine this colt having much of an impact in this race off of it's maiden win after five tries, a few in the claiming ranks. His jockey that day Rafael Bejarano has jumped ship to the horse on the rail, leaving O'Neill to tap ice cold Tyler Baze for the mount. Never a good sign when a good jock hops off your horse for another in the same race, but they've been wrong before. Just not this time. ;) And since i've panned him that means he'll win breaking the track record and make all our eyeballs fall out.
Bejarano jumped to this $500K son of Distorted Humor with plenty of early speed, the well bet KRISTO. He's been 3/5 in every race run for trainer John Sadler and last out opened up in the stretch, breaking his maiden at third asking. He'll most certainly be a part of the pace scenario and since he's slightly cutting back, perhaps will have a bit more in the tank to crank up for a battle with Midnight Hawk on the front end.
MY PICK: a blistering pace falls apart in the stretch for a closing TOP FORTITUDE. If you want to get paid. And the game IS about value! Otherwise, all the money is going to be on MIDNIGHT HAWK as an early Derby favorite. ONTOLOGY is a warrior and rounds out my exotics.
LAST YEARS WINNER: Goldencents went right to the front, set solid fractions and never looked back. He didn't beat much in a short field, except one of my favs, Den's Legacy, who hasn't gone onto greatness, but you can't leave him out of the exotics. Goldencents then went on to win the Breeder's Cup Mile for trainer Doug O'Neill and owner Rick Pitino.
UP NEXT ON THE ROAD TO THE DERBY: The LECOMTE going 1m 70y at Fair Grounds in a week from Saturday, followed by the SMARTY JONES at Oaklawn going 1 mile on Monday 1/20.
A short field of six heads to the gate this Saturday in Southern California, with more than a few making a surface switch. Seventeen points are up for grabs on The Road to the Kentucky Derby!
PREVIEW: This race begins with the likely post time favorite for Bob Baffert and Mike Smith, the highly touted, MIDNIGHT HAWK, who has crept up on everyone's derby watch list since his scintillating six length debut win going seven and a half furlongs over the synthetic, late in Hollywood Park's last ever meet. The son of Midnight Lute broke poorly, was hustled up to the quarter pole, Smith sought cover, letting the two inside horses over take him, before comfortably blasting them back to Pomona at the eighth pole. He's been firing bullets over the main track at Santa Anita, so the surface shouldn't be a concern. He loses the blinkers, so if he doesn't join the pace, he'll destroy this weak field. Mike Smith has been on fire this meet and last year won a ridiculous amount of grade ones and I think this Baffert fella might have a future as a trainer or something.
Next we'll go just inside of Midnight Hawk to a horse from much less known connections, but who ran just as incredible a race, a debut winner for trainer R. Kory Owens, TOP FORTITUDE. Jockey Kyla Stra found some traffic at the far turn, and bottled up before checking back, making a solid middle move going three wide on the turn, over taking the blistering pace setters. The Arizona bred has been training over the main track, firing a bullet in October. He hasn't raced in 56 days with Owens going 5/32 with a 45-90 day layoff, so it shouldn't be much of an issue. Looks like he could use an extra furlong or two.
Inside of Top Fortitude is the multiple stakes placed son of Tapit, ONTOLOGY. Trainer Simon Callaghan rushed this colt to the track, entering it in four graded stakes and two ungraded stakes before recently breaking its maiden on the turf. The Reddam Racing owned colt likes to press the pace and shows good early speed on the grass, an angle I like in the surface switch, but zonked out in the Grade 1 Front Runner over this same track after tracking the pace closely in a big field. He didn't handle the first turn well at all, perhaps not anticipating the give of the main track. The one-two-three finishers were Bond Holder, Dance with Fate and Tamarando, nice company, he held his own until the stretch. Throw that race out and I think you'll get a nice price on this horse, who might perform better with less traffic around him. A big question mark still looms large, though, and will be answered Saturday.
In the three hole, Jerry Hollendorfer saddles LIFE IS A JOY. A homebred son of Globalize who started his career with three straight wins, topping it off with the Charlie Palmer Futurity at Fresno, winning by six lengths over eight furlongs, so distance on the dirt isn't an issue here. Last out, he was second best in a state bred stakes, but that was over the synth at Hollywood Park. However, his last out in the dirt, again against state breds, he slightly stumbled at the start before closing late among a pack of finishers. If LIFE IS A JOY can break cleanly and run this race, he will be in the money. Jockey Nakatani is a great rider, but his aggressive style is always a concern for DQ's.
The other son of Tapit in this short field is I'LL WRAP IT UP for Derby winning trainer, Doug O'Neill. Hard to imagine this colt having much of an impact in this race off of it's maiden win after five tries, a few in the claiming ranks. His jockey that day Rafael Bejarano has jumped ship to the horse on the rail, leaving O'Neill to tap ice cold Tyler Baze for the mount. Never a good sign when a good jock hops off your horse for another in the same race, but they've been wrong before. Just not this time. ;) And since i've panned him that means he'll win breaking the track record and make all our eyeballs fall out.
Bejarano jumped to this $500K son of Distorted Humor with plenty of early speed, the well bet KRISTO. He's been 3/5 in every race run for trainer John Sadler and last out opened up in the stretch, breaking his maiden at third asking. He'll most certainly be a part of the pace scenario and since he's slightly cutting back, perhaps will have a bit more in the tank to crank up for a battle with Midnight Hawk on the front end.
MY PICK: a blistering pace falls apart in the stretch for a closing TOP FORTITUDE. If you want to get paid. And the game IS about value! Otherwise, all the money is going to be on MIDNIGHT HAWK as an early Derby favorite. ONTOLOGY is a warrior and rounds out my exotics.
LAST YEARS WINNER: Goldencents went right to the front, set solid fractions and never looked back. He didn't beat much in a short field, except one of my favs, Den's Legacy, who hasn't gone onto greatness, but you can't leave him out of the exotics. Goldencents then went on to win the Breeder's Cup Mile for trainer Doug O'Neill and owner Rick Pitino.
UP NEXT ON THE ROAD TO THE DERBY: The LECOMTE going 1m 70y at Fair Grounds in a week from Saturday, followed by the SMARTY JONES at Oaklawn going 1 mile on Monday 1/20.
