Greetings! This marks the first post in a while featuring my handicapping, so let's rip right into tomorrow's card at Belmont. Weather outlook is mid 60's, partly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain; so I'm not going to really consider the MTOs, however, I'll point out some excellent off track form, where applicable.
***RACE 1 - Maiden Special Weight for fillies going 6 furlongs, a field of six finds the gate. NYRA morning line maker, Eric Donovan, has made one horse 3/5 on his line, so let's assume the race goes through second time starter, #3 EASTERN ROSE.
1 - WINTER PALACE - the first of two for trainer John Hertler, this first time starter hasn't worked longer than four furlongs and hasn't breezed from the gate since January, while she has first time pedigree, add the jockey to the saddle and I'm gonna toss this horse completely from the mix.
2 - PICTURE DAY - the only other first time starter in this group, she is as regally bred as our favorite but, trainer John Terranova is not particularly good with first timers going 3/60 last year, however all three were debuting in Maiden Special Weights. The horse has a decent work tab with several gate work outs. Jockey Angel Cruz has been a revelation at Aqueduct and looks to carry his form to Big Sandy, where he's already won 6 races. I don't think she'll show much early speed with her pedigree, but first time starters rarely do, often winning from off the pace. Want an upset? Here you go!
3 - EASTERN ROSE - debuted 39 days ago at Gulfstream going 7 furlongs for trainer Shug McGaughey. In her debut she pressed the pace and battled gamely in the stretch before tiring at the wire against an odds on favorite, who trounced Optional 75k claimers at Churchill next out. The cutback to six furlongs should suit her nicely, except her pedigree screams two turns out of Bernardini and a Deputy Minister mare. Add to that her debut was a little one paced and the final time was three seconds over standard, so there is a vulnerability, lets see if any body can beat her. The sole four year old battling a field of 3 year olds. Deserving favorite, but 3/5 is bananas.
4 - FRENCH DRESSING - Hertler's other starter, this one has a start under her belt, albeit she had an awkward break and did absolutely no running. A homebred for small time connections with Fernando Jara piloting, I'll pass on this one.
5 - MISTAKEN LOVE - changes surfaces and cuts back from a mile and sixteenth for trainer Matz, this is the most obvious challenger to our favorite, however i have my reservations. Former equestrian trainer Matz surely can identify a turf horse when he sees one, so this move to me smacks of: "Well he can't win doing what we think he can, so let's start all over and try 6 on the dirt." She's obviously got the experience and she's even had the lead two back after a nice move on the turn and looked like a winner before she was caught between horses and backed out. If she runs back to that race, she's a contender.
6 - CALLING ME HOME - trainer Abigail Adsit gets horses ready to run third start off the layoff and cuts this horse back a half a furlong. Never the winner last out, she just put in that one run that eats 'em up late against tiring foes. What you don't see in the pp's is Jockey Junior Alvarado broke sharp and backed her out of a hotly contested pace duel, almost checking her run completely in the first quarter before finding the back of the pack and sending this horse after the coupled entry mates. She offers seasoning and value at 5/1.
MY CALL: EXATCTA 2,6W/3 some fillies don't want to win, let's plan on the favorite being a seconditits type. Also this horse will be seriously over bet in multi-race wagers so if we can get her beat, we are gonna make a big score.
***RACE 2 - 12.5k Claimers going 6 furlongs, eight starters. Trainer David Jacobson drops a ten year old millionaire gelding off a win to what is most likely his career low tag, because Jacobson is only interested in winning the owner/trainer title. However, he may have seeded his own defeat, giving up the obvious second choice for a cheap tag less than a month ago.
1 - GRANDPA LEN - may have found his calling as a bottom level claiming sprinter, two of his three victories have been at today's distance and both since the start of the year against non-3 and non-3 12.5k claimers. That said, this is a very salty field and this horse would have to improve greatly to win. He has campaigned tirelessly and without rest, I just don't see it.
2 - GANADOR - ironically named horse has trouble wining against Finger Lakes time- restricted bottom level claimers. He needs the lead and that ain't gonna happen here.
3 - BE BULLISH - the aforementioned Jacobson trainee, dropping to what has to be a career low, despite scoring three straight wins against tougher. Jacobson is a shrewd claimer and always aiming for the trainer/owner title, so it's no surprise this horse towers over the field. Oddly this year Jacobson is only 1/16 dropping off a win, so perhaps he's vulnerable here. But I think this horse brings his lunchpail and goes to work every time he's in the gate, finishing in the money an astonishing 67% for his career.
4 - LUCKYSDREAM - Jacobson might have set his own trap, letting this horse get claimed off him for 10k at the end of the Aqueduct meet. Certainly a need the lead type, in a race that appears to have plenty of pace or atleast pace pressure. This guy is a little quicker to the half than most everybody and could wire the field with a good break. But i just see too much pace in this race.
5 - PACIFIC IMAGE - owner/trainer Ryan Derek ships this horse in from a winter at Tampa Bay Downs. Just from a speed figs stand point, this horse has no shot. 12.5k claimers at Belmont are maybe 1,000 times tougher than 12.5k claimers at Tampa, especially this field. Looks to get involved early and make this a hotly contested pace, however.
6 - MOONLUCK - a personal fav of mine, this horse has not been the same as a five year old and I wouldn't put it on trainer Naipaul Chatterpaul to turn things around. Talented enough to win this race last year, I would only give him a look underneath in the exotics.
7 - LOVE TO RUN - the other Chatterpaul trainee, the only chance I ever give his horses a look is first or second off the claim, so this one's got a chance to come off a hot pace, but he likes to get involved early too. Jockey Arroyo doesn't instill you with any confidence.
8 - BACK FORTY - the lone closer in the group will have plenty of pace to run into, if that's what he wants. 6/15 at the distance doesn't make him a specialist, but 40% doesn't sound all that bad. Hot 7 pound bug rider, Eric Cancel hops on top and this horse's last win was with a weight break. He would blow up the toteboard and is worth a look in here.
MY CALL: 3/5,6,8
Hey i've noticed it's taken me over two hours to break down two races, so I'm gonna just pick my spots from here on out. XD
***RACE 3 - #2 REPENT TWICE - the John Parisella trainee needed a little more in the tank in his first two starts at the Big A and now gets Lasix for the first time. He should come a-runnin' unless the Chad Brown trainee #3 GROUPTHINK walks the dog. However, a likely pace contender is the #5 BLUE CHIPS ONLY who stretches out from six furlongs and dons the blinkers and won't let the #3 get away with soft fractions.
***RACE 4 - #3 GREG'S FOURWHEELER - third off the layoff, maiden to maiden claimers and first time grass for this 4 year old son of Sky Mesa out of a Broken Vow mare who herself has dropped two turf winners from four starters, make it now THREE! My only concerns is jockey Jara. So my back up is #5 JACKSON N LEONARD who similarly tries dirt for the first time out of a mare who has produced 3 turf winners from 7 starters. He showed early speed before pulling up in his debut about 150 days ago. Trainer Dominic Schettino is 6/51 with horses 90+ day layoffs, however my estimation is he might need a race. #8 STARAGO showed speed before fading at a mile 1/16ths first off the bench. Trainer Greg DiPrima hits at 5/16 second off a layoff and he gets super hot Angel Cruz to ride. However, i've noticed Cruz is not the rider on turf that he is on dirt. If that makes sense! And as always in these statebred maiden claiming events, keep an eye on the horses in the paddock and note their condition. I've caught a few winners by throwing out the form and just looking at their condition!
***RACE 5 - appears to be a two horse race on paper between the #1 SALUDA and the #6 DARIEL. Hot trainer Gary Gullo and jockey Cruz get my nod.
***RACE 6 - #5 COLOUR PARTY showed huge turn of foot late in his US debut in a non-graded stake for trainer Christophe Clemente. 2nd off the layoff, 2nd time lasix and first time Manny Franco who continues to show his excellence, especially on turf with 9/26 winners.
***RACE 7 - My advice is to buy this race in any multi-race wagers. Although personally I prefer #2 JOKING, if merely for the fact that one of my favorite trainers, Charlton Baker is wheeling this horse back 10 days after his last race. Baker is an under the radar trainer and scores 22/94 3rd off the layoff. This horse has hit the board in each of his 3 starts at today's distance. But honestly this is anybody's ball game with some classy horses who haven't done much and some horses who have done alot but aren't too classy. This is a fun one.
***RACE 8 - Well if ever there's a race to stay away from, perhaps that's the best time to jump in! Except for a few horses at big odds, I don't like anybody. First there's the #7 SI COLOGY. Who finds the grass for the second time, after debuting and zonking out down in Laurel. Sired by Purim out of Dynaformer, he's bred for grass and has won at this distance on dirt. Gets Castellano to pilot, perhaps the best turf rider in the country. The horse's late kick should lend itself well to the surface switch. Second, the #11 SUNNY PUZZLE is perhaps better bred for this, by Elusive Quality out of a Seattle Slew mare. This horse showed some speed on the turf down at the Fair Grounds and it looks like Contessa claimed this horse to put him just this spot. Third, #2 D'TUMBLING DICE, named after perhaps the greatest Rolling Stones song, ships in for Parx sneak-a-holics Guadalupe Preciado. The horse showed some ability going the distance against optional claimers down at Gulfstream, but couldn't finish the job. Finally, #9 MARK MY STYLE doesn't scream turf on the top side, but the dam side is all about it. Showed ability last year at this distance before backing out between foes. Rosario saddles this Toscano trainee first off the claim. You could literally go a hundred directions with this race. Just don't take a short price!
***RACE 9 - Well my initial reaction was how on earth is #7 FAST AT NOON going to be such long odds. Then i watched the replay. She was moving like a tremendous machine until she hit the wall. She looked every bit a runaway winner at the 8th pole and just stopped. But watch the track condition, perhaps she either REALLY liked the off going and is severely distance limited or didn't like the surfaces but was talented enough to power through for most of the race before throwing in the towel. Her breeding doesn't offer any hints. But she's going to be locked in a pace duel with more than a few others. So with plenty of pace in the race, I look for two kinds of horses, horses with no form running in paceless races and first/second time starters. And that angle leads me to #9 HARLAN'S SIX for super hot Gary Gullo, this is her second time at this level and cuts back to 6 furlongs after quite a few paceless scenarios. I have always kind of liked this horse and if she can repeat her performance three back against better opposition, she wins this race. I'm not in love with jockey Rajiv Maragh piloting a closing sprinter on dirt, but perhaps Rajiv's aggression with serve him well as this horse will need to weave through traffic to get the job done. As for second time starters, #4 YABUQUIVA, showed really nice early speed before throwing in the towel down at Laurel. I hate the performance but this is the best bred horse in the race by a furlong, by Bluegrass Cat out of a Vindication mare by Winstar, but only sold for 5k at auction. Plus she's gonna be locked up on the front end with the rest of the field. So when in doubt, go with the #1 horse, #1 NOT ABOUT THE NAIL, is kind of one paced, but drops to the 25k level for the first time, so should show improvement. Again, this race goes a hundred different directions. #1,#9
***RACE 1 - Maiden Special Weight for fillies going 6 furlongs, a field of six finds the gate. NYRA morning line maker, Eric Donovan, has made one horse 3/5 on his line, so let's assume the race goes through second time starter, #3 EASTERN ROSE.
1 - WINTER PALACE - the first of two for trainer John Hertler, this first time starter hasn't worked longer than four furlongs and hasn't breezed from the gate since January, while she has first time pedigree, add the jockey to the saddle and I'm gonna toss this horse completely from the mix.
2 - PICTURE DAY - the only other first time starter in this group, she is as regally bred as our favorite but, trainer John Terranova is not particularly good with first timers going 3/60 last year, however all three were debuting in Maiden Special Weights. The horse has a decent work tab with several gate work outs. Jockey Angel Cruz has been a revelation at Aqueduct and looks to carry his form to Big Sandy, where he's already won 6 races. I don't think she'll show much early speed with her pedigree, but first time starters rarely do, often winning from off the pace. Want an upset? Here you go!
3 - EASTERN ROSE - debuted 39 days ago at Gulfstream going 7 furlongs for trainer Shug McGaughey. In her debut she pressed the pace and battled gamely in the stretch before tiring at the wire against an odds on favorite, who trounced Optional 75k claimers at Churchill next out. The cutback to six furlongs should suit her nicely, except her pedigree screams two turns out of Bernardini and a Deputy Minister mare. Add to that her debut was a little one paced and the final time was three seconds over standard, so there is a vulnerability, lets see if any body can beat her. The sole four year old battling a field of 3 year olds. Deserving favorite, but 3/5 is bananas.
4 - FRENCH DRESSING - Hertler's other starter, this one has a start under her belt, albeit she had an awkward break and did absolutely no running. A homebred for small time connections with Fernando Jara piloting, I'll pass on this one.
5 - MISTAKEN LOVE - changes surfaces and cuts back from a mile and sixteenth for trainer Matz, this is the most obvious challenger to our favorite, however i have my reservations. Former equestrian trainer Matz surely can identify a turf horse when he sees one, so this move to me smacks of: "Well he can't win doing what we think he can, so let's start all over and try 6 on the dirt." She's obviously got the experience and she's even had the lead two back after a nice move on the turn and looked like a winner before she was caught between horses and backed out. If she runs back to that race, she's a contender.
6 - CALLING ME HOME - trainer Abigail Adsit gets horses ready to run third start off the layoff and cuts this horse back a half a furlong. Never the winner last out, she just put in that one run that eats 'em up late against tiring foes. What you don't see in the pp's is Jockey Junior Alvarado broke sharp and backed her out of a hotly contested pace duel, almost checking her run completely in the first quarter before finding the back of the pack and sending this horse after the coupled entry mates. She offers seasoning and value at 5/1.
MY CALL: EXATCTA 2,6W/3 some fillies don't want to win, let's plan on the favorite being a seconditits type. Also this horse will be seriously over bet in multi-race wagers so if we can get her beat, we are gonna make a big score.
***RACE 2 - 12.5k Claimers going 6 furlongs, eight starters. Trainer David Jacobson drops a ten year old millionaire gelding off a win to what is most likely his career low tag, because Jacobson is only interested in winning the owner/trainer title. However, he may have seeded his own defeat, giving up the obvious second choice for a cheap tag less than a month ago.
1 - GRANDPA LEN - may have found his calling as a bottom level claiming sprinter, two of his three victories have been at today's distance and both since the start of the year against non-3 and non-3 12.5k claimers. That said, this is a very salty field and this horse would have to improve greatly to win. He has campaigned tirelessly and without rest, I just don't see it.
2 - GANADOR - ironically named horse has trouble wining against Finger Lakes time- restricted bottom level claimers. He needs the lead and that ain't gonna happen here.
3 - BE BULLISH - the aforementioned Jacobson trainee, dropping to what has to be a career low, despite scoring three straight wins against tougher. Jacobson is a shrewd claimer and always aiming for the trainer/owner title, so it's no surprise this horse towers over the field. Oddly this year Jacobson is only 1/16 dropping off a win, so perhaps he's vulnerable here. But I think this horse brings his lunchpail and goes to work every time he's in the gate, finishing in the money an astonishing 67% for his career.
4 - LUCKYSDREAM - Jacobson might have set his own trap, letting this horse get claimed off him for 10k at the end of the Aqueduct meet. Certainly a need the lead type, in a race that appears to have plenty of pace or atleast pace pressure. This guy is a little quicker to the half than most everybody and could wire the field with a good break. But i just see too much pace in this race.
5 - PACIFIC IMAGE - owner/trainer Ryan Derek ships this horse in from a winter at Tampa Bay Downs. Just from a speed figs stand point, this horse has no shot. 12.5k claimers at Belmont are maybe 1,000 times tougher than 12.5k claimers at Tampa, especially this field. Looks to get involved early and make this a hotly contested pace, however.
6 - MOONLUCK - a personal fav of mine, this horse has not been the same as a five year old and I wouldn't put it on trainer Naipaul Chatterpaul to turn things around. Talented enough to win this race last year, I would only give him a look underneath in the exotics.
7 - LOVE TO RUN - the other Chatterpaul trainee, the only chance I ever give his horses a look is first or second off the claim, so this one's got a chance to come off a hot pace, but he likes to get involved early too. Jockey Arroyo doesn't instill you with any confidence.
8 - BACK FORTY - the lone closer in the group will have plenty of pace to run into, if that's what he wants. 6/15 at the distance doesn't make him a specialist, but 40% doesn't sound all that bad. Hot 7 pound bug rider, Eric Cancel hops on top and this horse's last win was with a weight break. He would blow up the toteboard and is worth a look in here.
MY CALL: 3/5,6,8
Hey i've noticed it's taken me over two hours to break down two races, so I'm gonna just pick my spots from here on out. XD
***RACE 3 - #2 REPENT TWICE - the John Parisella trainee needed a little more in the tank in his first two starts at the Big A and now gets Lasix for the first time. He should come a-runnin' unless the Chad Brown trainee #3 GROUPTHINK walks the dog. However, a likely pace contender is the #5 BLUE CHIPS ONLY who stretches out from six furlongs and dons the blinkers and won't let the #3 get away with soft fractions.
***RACE 4 - #3 GREG'S FOURWHEELER - third off the layoff, maiden to maiden claimers and first time grass for this 4 year old son of Sky Mesa out of a Broken Vow mare who herself has dropped two turf winners from four starters, make it now THREE! My only concerns is jockey Jara. So my back up is #5 JACKSON N LEONARD who similarly tries dirt for the first time out of a mare who has produced 3 turf winners from 7 starters. He showed early speed before pulling up in his debut about 150 days ago. Trainer Dominic Schettino is 6/51 with horses 90+ day layoffs, however my estimation is he might need a race. #8 STARAGO showed speed before fading at a mile 1/16ths first off the bench. Trainer Greg DiPrima hits at 5/16 second off a layoff and he gets super hot Angel Cruz to ride. However, i've noticed Cruz is not the rider on turf that he is on dirt. If that makes sense! And as always in these statebred maiden claiming events, keep an eye on the horses in the paddock and note their condition. I've caught a few winners by throwing out the form and just looking at their condition!
***RACE 5 - appears to be a two horse race on paper between the #1 SALUDA and the #6 DARIEL. Hot trainer Gary Gullo and jockey Cruz get my nod.
***RACE 6 - #5 COLOUR PARTY showed huge turn of foot late in his US debut in a non-graded stake for trainer Christophe Clemente. 2nd off the layoff, 2nd time lasix and first time Manny Franco who continues to show his excellence, especially on turf with 9/26 winners.
***RACE 7 - My advice is to buy this race in any multi-race wagers. Although personally I prefer #2 JOKING, if merely for the fact that one of my favorite trainers, Charlton Baker is wheeling this horse back 10 days after his last race. Baker is an under the radar trainer and scores 22/94 3rd off the layoff. This horse has hit the board in each of his 3 starts at today's distance. But honestly this is anybody's ball game with some classy horses who haven't done much and some horses who have done alot but aren't too classy. This is a fun one.
***RACE 8 - Well if ever there's a race to stay away from, perhaps that's the best time to jump in! Except for a few horses at big odds, I don't like anybody. First there's the #7 SI COLOGY. Who finds the grass for the second time, after debuting and zonking out down in Laurel. Sired by Purim out of Dynaformer, he's bred for grass and has won at this distance on dirt. Gets Castellano to pilot, perhaps the best turf rider in the country. The horse's late kick should lend itself well to the surface switch. Second, the #11 SUNNY PUZZLE is perhaps better bred for this, by Elusive Quality out of a Seattle Slew mare. This horse showed some speed on the turf down at the Fair Grounds and it looks like Contessa claimed this horse to put him just this spot. Third, #2 D'TUMBLING DICE, named after perhaps the greatest Rolling Stones song, ships in for Parx sneak-a-holics Guadalupe Preciado. The horse showed some ability going the distance against optional claimers down at Gulfstream, but couldn't finish the job. Finally, #9 MARK MY STYLE doesn't scream turf on the top side, but the dam side is all about it. Showed ability last year at this distance before backing out between foes. Rosario saddles this Toscano trainee first off the claim. You could literally go a hundred directions with this race. Just don't take a short price!
***RACE 9 - Well my initial reaction was how on earth is #7 FAST AT NOON going to be such long odds. Then i watched the replay. She was moving like a tremendous machine until she hit the wall. She looked every bit a runaway winner at the 8th pole and just stopped. But watch the track condition, perhaps she either REALLY liked the off going and is severely distance limited or didn't like the surfaces but was talented enough to power through for most of the race before throwing in the towel. Her breeding doesn't offer any hints. But she's going to be locked in a pace duel with more than a few others. So with plenty of pace in the race, I look for two kinds of horses, horses with no form running in paceless races and first/second time starters. And that angle leads me to #9 HARLAN'S SIX for super hot Gary Gullo, this is her second time at this level and cuts back to 6 furlongs after quite a few paceless scenarios. I have always kind of liked this horse and if she can repeat her performance three back against better opposition, she wins this race. I'm not in love with jockey Rajiv Maragh piloting a closing sprinter on dirt, but perhaps Rajiv's aggression with serve him well as this horse will need to weave through traffic to get the job done. As for second time starters, #4 YABUQUIVA, showed really nice early speed before throwing in the towel down at Laurel. I hate the performance but this is the best bred horse in the race by a furlong, by Bluegrass Cat out of a Vindication mare by Winstar, but only sold for 5k at auction. Plus she's gonna be locked up on the front end with the rest of the field. So when in doubt, go with the #1 horse, #1 NOT ABOUT THE NAIL, is kind of one paced, but drops to the 25k level for the first time, so should show improvement. Again, this race goes a hundred different directions. #1,#9
