Withers, Lewis and Davis

    The experimental free handicap is now available from the Jockey club HERE.  
    Entries have been announced for the upcoming three races on the Derby Prep Trail. Again, ten points for a win are up for grabs in each of these stakes. Not too many of these horses have any points towards qualifying for the Derby except Den's Legacy and He's Had Enough from the Robert B Lewis with six and four points respectively.  Last year's Withers was taken down by Godolphin stable and Traver's co-winner Alpha.  We should eventually get some free PP's HERE

     Lets look at the line ups:

Withers S.

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds |  G3  STAKES |  Purse: $200,000

PP	HORSE	JOCKEY	TRAINER	CLAIM $	EQUIP.	MED.
1	Long River	I. Ortiz, Jr.  116 Lbs	K. McLaughlin		-	FTL
2	Valid	J. Alvarado  116 Lbs	K. McLaughlin		-
3	Revolutionary	J. Castellano  116 Lbs	T. Pletcher		-	L
4	Escapefromreality	J. Ortiz  116 Lbs	D. Schettino		-	L
5	Amerigo Vespucci	E. Rodriguez  116 Lbs	T. Tullock, Jr.		Blk-On	L
6	Siete de Oros	M. Remedio  118 Lbs	R. Preciado		-	L
7	Champion Boy	E. Castro  116 Lbs	J. Guerrero		-	L
8	Smooth Bert	M. Luzzi  118 Lbs	L. Gyarmati		-	L

      Early thought on the Withers is Revolutionary is the horse to beat at Aqueduct, coming off his maiden victory with a 102 Beyer.  Here he is saving ground before coming in third in Orb's maiden victory.  He just put in a great workout at Belmont speeding to four furlongs in 47.88, before galloping out to a minute flat in five furlongs, 1:13:39 in six before pulling up at the seven furlong mark, clocking in 1:28:00.  The Pletcher trainee should be bet down beyond 2/1, but he provides good value above that mark.  He most likely picks up John Velazquez as his prior mount, Ramon Dominguez has a fractured skull.
      Inside, Kieran McLaughlin has two striving for the graded stakes win.  Long River finished fourth in that Jerome behind Amerigo Vespucci and doesn't look a threat.  His stable mate and likely paired entry is Valid coming off his own maiden victory at Laurel and is untested at this distance, however finished strong, leaving the field in his wake.
      Escapefromreality will need to escape from the gate after finishing second in it's only race over six furlongs.  It's pedigree suggests it might take to the stretching out, with sire Read the Footnotes taking down a 1 mile and 1 1/16 mile race before going to stud and unraced dam Queen of the City, herself out of Medaglia d'Oro.
      Amerigo Vespucci saved ground before finishing third in that Jerome.  Looking good with some late kick as the favorite in it's maiden race over six furlongs.  His pedigree is well suited to taking down this score coming out of Henrythenavigator, a four time G1 mile winner across the pond, while finishing second in the 2008 Breeder's Cup Classic.  Keep an eye on this one.  We could get a really nice price on this one.
      Siete de Oros is coming off a great Jerome, narrowly losing to Vyjack in the a mile and 70 yards Grade 2 and will likely be the second selection of the betting public.  He has improved in distance and placing in each race and its hard to imagine him not overcoming this field to put him close to the points leaders in the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
       Champion Boy is an unraced son of Big Brown, who's only loss was the 2008 Belmont Stakes, denying him the Triple Crown.  This is a real wild card as his first offspring are only now racing, the sire won his first five races.  This should give us and idea how Big Brown debut starters run.  Let's pay attention to his workouts.
       New York bred Smooth Bert is only graded stakes winner among this bunch, with a strong close in the Damon Runyon, over taking Pletcher favorite, Notacatbutallama on a sloppy track.  However, he doesn't exactly instill you with confidence over this field.  Quotes like this from trainer Leah Gyamarti, don't instill you with confidence either “It seems like a good time to find out if belongs with that kind.  If not, we can go back to New York-breds.”  Gotta love the attitude, but it doesn't exactly scream 'this horse is a winner.'


Summary:  this very much looks like a G3 at Aqueduct in the dead of winter, a few uninspiring winners, a few unproven commodities and an over bet Pletcher horse.  As much as I think a horse needs a race to prove himself, especially to go the mile and sixteen in the Withers, but I'm not too impressed with anybody else, so why not take a shot with the Big Brown colt?  His daddy won first time out at a mile 1/16 over the turf at Saratoga and he'll likely go at a big price.  Plus, it makes a great story to bet this first timer who debuts in a stakes race to win 10 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.


I'll break down these other two stakes tomorrow, complete with history, pedigree, videos and insight.  You know how we do!

Robert B. Lewis S.

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds |  G2  STAKES |  Purse: $200,000

PP	HORSE	JOCKEY	TRAINER	CLAIM $	EQUIP.	MED.
1	Little Jerry	T. Baze  118 Lbs	R. Baltas		-	L
2	Flashback	J. Leparoux  118 Lbs	B. Baffert		-	L
3	Den's Legacy	G. Gomez  120 Lbs	B. Baffert		-	L
4	He's Had Enough	M. Gutierrez  118 Lbs	D. O'Neill		Blk-On	L

Sam F. Davis S.

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds |  G3  STAKES |  Purse: $250,000

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum)

PP	HORSE	JOCKEY	TRAINER	CLAIM $	EQUIP.	MED.
1	Silver Day	M. Pedroza  116 Lbs	W. Kaplan		-	L
2	Divine Ambition	W. Martinez  116 Lbs	D. Miller		-	L
3	My Name Is Michael	J. Rosario  116 Lbs	W. Mott		-	L
4	Speak Logistics	A. Serpa  120 Lbs	E. Plesa, Jr.		-	L
5	Lightning Stone	D. Coa  116 Lbs	W. Allyn		-
6	Northern Lion	P. Husbands  116 Lbs	M. Casse		-	L
7	Balino	N. Goodwin  116 Lbs	B. Rhone		-	L
8	Falling Sky	L. Saez  116 Lbs	J. Terranova, II		-	L
9	Dynamic Sky	L. Contreras  116 Lbs	M. Casse		-	L
10	Midnite Poppa	J. Lezcano  116 Lbs	N. Zito		-	L

"He ran a heck of a race"

Starlight Racing likes what they saw from Shanghai Bobby in the Holy Bull Stakes.  Hard to disagree, he still ran a personal best 100 Beyer despite losing to Itsmyluckyday, the show horse finished 11 1/2 lengths behind him.  While this race most likely makes Itsmyluckyday the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby, you'd have to agree with Shanghai Bobby's owners, it doesn't diminish his chances at taking down the 139th Run for the Roses, he only lost by two lengths, still breaking the old track record.  We did learn that Shanghai Bobby can go out and get the pace from the rail.  But I'd have to disagree with the article's author that "times did not seem inordinately fast,", Shanghai Bobby's stable mate, Kauai Katie romped to a 96 Beyer in her score in the Forward Gal and Traver's co-winner Golden Ticket jogged (!) only 0.81 slower in his 62.5K Allowance Optional Claiming fourth race than the record setting pace in the Holy Bull.  This track was fast, despite Orb's late close in the relatively slow fifth race.  I just think that was a paceless race with an opening fraction of 24 1/5, lending itself well to a big close by the Shug McGaughey trained, 3 year old colt.  So take Itsmyluckyday's run with a grain of salt.  Fast track + decent pace = track record + nice Beyer.  
     Two caveats to that equation, they have only run about 100 races at Gulfstream at that distance, over the past two years.  So its not a decades old, battle hardened, historic record which the grey hairs of South Florida reminisce about, recalling two war horses battling down the stretch, pushing each other to the limits of exhaustion in blazing a new track record.  But it's still a damn fine performance over the Eclipse award winning two year old colt, trained by Todd Pletcher.  And a 104 Beyer isn't exactly mind blowing.  A great number in a Derby Prep race, much higher than some past Derby winners prep races, much it doesn't make you fall out of your chair.  So what's next for Itsmyluckday?  Owner Laurie Plesa is pointing her 3 year old son of Lawyer Ron towards the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 30th back here at Gulfstream with another 170 points available on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.  Take Charge Indy wired the field in last year's derby, beating odds on favorite and eventual Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags.

       On another note, where in the hell were the other horses people were picking to upset Shanghai Bobby?    Bern Identity, Frac Daddy and Dewey Square all finished out of the money behind the synthetic speedster, Clearly Now and behind 132/1 shot Joshua's Comprise.  Bern has the best excuse getting bumped early and shuffled back; jockey Paco Lopez did the smart thing and clung to the rail, saving ground, but still should have over come these much less logical horses.  Those three horses lost by 14 1/2, 16 3/4 and 28 1/2 lengths respectively.  This was domination over a relatively strong field with a few horses likely be among the twenty in the starting gate for the 139th Kentucky Derby.  

      Dale Romans has a Zen-like patience with horses, especially for ones he has high expectations.  Dewey Square will come back and improve in his next race.  However, I feel Ken McPeek and Kelly Breen might have to rethink a run at the Derby.  They were trounced.  Soundly.  Even beaten by the longest shot on the board to make the superfecta spot.  The pace was honest for a route.  Only Dewey Square has any real excuse.

      Starlight Racing managing partner, Jack Wolf felt the field was better than the Breeder's Cup Juvenile.  We all read that and scoff, but it did look a strong field, much stronger than a Grade 3 would normally be, but this is because these are valuable points on the road to Kentucky Derby.  The fields in these races will belie their purses and gradings.  Everybody in racing wants to go to the Kentucky Derby and everybody wants to win the Kentucky Derby.  Fact.  So get ready for more records smashing performances, more great stretch runs, more blinding paces to be set, more, more, more great racing ahead!  Stay tuned to Road to the Kentucky Derby for more updates, analysis, recaps, video replays, history plumbing insight and most important great picks!

Eating Crow

Well it appears that Gulfstream Derby ran by Itsmyluckyday WASN'T his best performance!  He didn't bounce off that performance, he just beat Shanghai Bobby down the stretch, setting a new track record of 1:41:81 seconds.  According to my rough calculations that's a 129 Beyer Speed Figure.  If I'm right, he just ran the highest Beyer of all time, beating Ghostzapper's 128 in the Philip H. Iselin Stakes at Monmouth.  Which means I must be wrong.  But it looks like we have a new Derby favorite!
UPDATE: 104 Beyer for Itsmyluckyday in the Holy Bull



Here's a write up:


Saturday, Gulfstream Park

HOLY BULL S.-GIII, $400,000, 3yo, 1 1/16m, 1:41.81 (NTR), ft.

ITSMYLUCKYDAY (c, 3, Lawyer Ron--Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) ran a huge race in the Gulfstream Park Derby on New Year’s Day, earning a 111 BRIS while winning off by 6 3/4 lengths, and proved that was no fluke with a track-record performance that came at the expense of last year’s unbeaten champion juvenile Shanghai Bobby (Harlan’s Holiday). The latter broke fast from the inside draw and set legitimate :23.34 and :46.68 fractions while hounded by Clearly Now (Horse Greeley) and a three-wide Itsmyluckyday. Clearly Now backed out of it at the 3/16th pole, and Itsmyluckyday wore down the game GI BC Juvenile S. winner to win going away by 2 3/4 lengths in the end. Clearly Now held for third, with rank outsider Joshua’s Comprise (Comprise) getting up for fourth. Lifetime Record: 9-5-1-1.

O-Trilogy Stable & Laurie Plesa; T-Eddie Plesa Jr; B-Liberation Farm & Brandywine Farm; J-Elvis Trujillo.


 What this means:
This rockets Itsmyluckyday up to a tie for fourth in Derby Points standings with 10, tying him with Overanalyze, Uncaptured, Power Broker, Steeler, Will Take Charge, River Seven.  While his second place finish only earns him four additional points, Shanghai Bobby is now tied with Goldencents atop the leader board with 24 points apiece.


Looking Ahead:
Next we have a three way stop on the road to the Kentucky Derby: first stop is the Santa Anita Racetrack and the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.  This is the race that I'll Have Another announced himself as 3 year old to be reckoned with, going off at 43/1  before taking down the first two legs of the Triple Crown and winning the Eclipse award as 3 year old of the year.  Unfortunately, we will never see the great horse run again.

Next stop is the 1 1/16 mile Sam F. Davis Stakes at the deep and sandy Tampa Bay Downs, which only recently became a grade 3 and hasn't really factored in any many Derby runners and no Derby winners in it's 21 year history.  Although 27 years ago, when the race was known as the Santa Catalina Stakes, Ferdinand scored here before winning the Kentucky Derby.  But it's still worth 10 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Last stop on the road to the Kentucky Derby is Aqueduct Racetrack in beautiful Queens, New York and the Grade 3 Withers Stakes.  First run in 1899, previous winners feature Alsab, Hill Prince, Aloma's Ruler, Native Dancer, including Triple Crown winners, Count Fleet, Sir Barton and Man o'War, which should give you an indication on how important this event has been recently.  Although Bernardini did find his first graded stakes victory here before winning the Preakness, Jim Dandy, Travers and Jockey Gold Cup, despite Javier Castellano dropping his whip in the stretch!  Last year Alpha took it down as a prohibitive favorite.  Now this classic event is given even more importance, being one of the last few stops in the Derby Prep season before moving on to the Kentucky Derby Championship Series, where a win is worth five times as much.

Stay tuned for more news, analysis, race replays, free PP's and more!

Holy Bull Handicapping

UPDATE: Changes - Frac Daddy and Dewey Square + 1lb, Joshua's Comprise jockey change from Kent Desormeaux to Manoel Cruz


Holy Bull Handicapping:

Weather: Looks like the weather should be great, never dropping below the dew point over night.  Should be about 75 degrees, sunny with an 8 mph North Easterly wind and 53% humidity around post time.  Perfect racing weather.  Track should be in great shape and most likely fast on the rail as is usually the case at Gulfstream.


Favorite:
Shanghai Bobby
You know Todd Pletcher's horses are always over bet, so why should this undefeated 3 year old be any different.  Pletcher is a stellar 31%, 16 for 52, with sixty day layoffs for his dirt route horses during this decade at Gulfstream Park and administers Lasix again, after the Breeder's Cup.  The colt has beaten Bern Identity and Derby points leader Goldencents, while holding down second place in the Derby standings.  A 4/5 morning line seems right on target, given that starters on the rail at Gulfstream win at a 20% clip, however I wouldn't touch the Harlan's Holiday colt at odds of less than 2/1.  There are only two questions:

1.  Is this too early for Bobby to come back from winning in the Breeder's Cup?  No way, right?  You may think twice after reading this article.

2.  Have the other two year olds caught up with Shanghai Bobby now that they are all three year olds?  For this answer we will have to wait for the post parade.


This will be only the second time Shanghai Bobby takes on a route of  two turns after squeaking out this score over He's Had Enough at Santa Anita.  Here's his last race the Breeder's Cup Juvenile:

I believe he can be beat.  And the time is now.


Contenters:
Frac Daddy - this distance running son of Scat Daddy looks like a classic presser.  Sits off the pace waiting for the stretch before making a move.  The pace should set up nicely for this colt, but if the pace is blistering, Daddy could find him self shuffled back in this ten horse field.  However, jockey David Cohen has been inept this season at Gulfstream and trainer Ken McPeek is only scoring at 15% with a layoff of 46-90 days.  There do not seem to be many favorable angles, except Frac Daddy's damsire is three time Horse of the year, Skip Away.  However he should be a nice price and in the mix.

Bern Identity - this grandson of Storm Cat got a rough trip in the Delta Downs Derby, also a Derby Prep Race, getting bottled up on the turn and racing five wide, finishing 1 3/4 lengths off Derby points leader Goldencents.  Watch the replay, if the race were even a few yards longer, the Bernstein colt would have caught the winner.  He does possess early and tactical speed and could press Shanghai Bobby and the early leaders or come from off the pace for a big stretch run.  Trainer Kelly Breen has won a Belmont but isn't a big name and 6% over 92 record for graded stakes tell you why.

Dewey Square - has like many of his opponents not raced in two months, is out of Bernardini, himself out of  A.P. Indy.  Trainer Dale Romans just won his first Eclipse award, but it ain't because of Dewey Square, not yet.  Dewey's going to need slow fractions to set up before finishing strongly, an unlikely scenario in this race.  He ran a bullet 59 seconds over five furlongs just six days ago.  Romans is cranking this horse up to compete in this race.  However he ran a bullet just before the Kentucky Jockey Club and still lost, albeit by 1 1/2 lengths, finishing third behind Frac Daddy.


Wild Cards:

Itsmyluckyday - this Lawyer Ron colt ran the best last race pippng Sr. Quisqueyano by 6 3/4 lengths over a mile here at Gulfstream in the Gulfstream Derby (youtube vid), much his best race.  If you're trying to beat Shanghai Bobby, look no further; and should he repeat his last performance, we're looking at a genuine Derby Contender. An overlay at future odds of 65/1.  However if you think he's due for a bounce off that personal best, you're like me.

Sr. Quisqueyano - that sizzling hot pace in the Gulfstream Derby should be repeated today.  So if you like the fact that Itsmyluckyday drew off for a monster figure from this colt, yet this guy ran still ran respectably and possibly coasted down the stretch, then you are going to get a nice price.  He does get a ride from veteran Joel Rosario and this small time trainer rates pretty well in stakes races.

Fredericksburg - I really like this colt in this spot, IF this race were run on turf, given his pedigree.  But if you're going to get 30/1 on a Michael Matz/John Velazquez collaboration out of Speightstown with Dynaformer for a damsire, that little handicapper in the back of your head tells you, you gotta take it.  He might go for the lead with blinkers on for the first time.  If he does, he's toast.


Also Ran:

Joshua's Comprise - Finished fourth by 20+ lengths in that Gulfstream Derby, having lost to to the same company before.  Only one win in his career, poor jockey stats, poor trainer stats, poor speed figures, poor outside post win percentage.  Loooong shot!

Tulira Castle - won his last race, a 75k optional claimer now steps up to a grade three stakes race.  Not a crazy jump in class, but I don't think you can call this a grade three running field.  This is for a shot in the Derby.  In over his head.

Clearly Now - gets a good rider change and the transition from Woodbine synthetic to dirt is an angle I do like.  However if he's tiring over the distance on that springy synthetic as he did in his last race up in Canada, he's really going to crap out on the dirt.  Looks like a sprinter and I'd bet him if they shorten him up.  But in this race he just looks to spoil things with a nuclear pace.  But he might like Florida this time of year.  It sure beats Toronto!


Breakdown:
Given the number of front runners in this race (Shanghai Bobby, Clearly Now, Tulira Castle and possibly Bern Identity) and their bleeding edge speed, you'd have imagine the pace will melt down, however with no real deep closing threats, your winner will most likely come from just off the pace to over take a tired pack.  Itsmyluckyday might be that horse, but I think he's due for a bounce off that great performance in the Gulfstream Derby.


My Pick:
Call me crazy, but I think Sr. Quisqueyano walks away a graded stakes winner.  Good jock, good trainer in graded stakes, very good speed figs.  A cheap colt they threw in the deep end, who took awhile to swim.  He clearly took it easy down the stretch in that Gulfstream Derby, finishing 5 1/2 lengths in front of the show horse and yet still ran well.  The pace should be similar in this race and it looks like he's able to keep up on a blistering pace and take over.  Spending most of his time at Calder the Florida humidity shouldn't be a factor.  And you are going to get a monster price.

Here's are links to some free Brisnet and Equibase PP's for this weekends Holy Bull Stakes:

Here
and Here

A great look at the pedigrees of the contenders can be found Here


Holy Bull Previews

"I had a dream of winning the Derby on Shanghai Bobby"

Rosie Napravnik like brownies and dreams of taking Shanghai Bobby to the winner circle under the Twin Spires

Also a great read over at Horse Racing Nation on how Shanghai Bobby is racing a bit too early in the season for a Breeder's Cup Juvenile Champion

Veetle

If you're not up on what's so cool about Veetle, you need to be! Check it out!  Veetle.com is a premium quality video streaming site and I'm streaming replays of most of the races leading up to 139th Kentucky Derby! It does require a download of the Veetle player, but your computer will barely notice, its very lightweight yet quite powerful. If you'd like to download the Veetle player, here's the link:

http://veetle.com/index.php/download

If you're hesitant to check out Veetle, I assure it's not malware or spam but similar to Ustream or Justin.tv. You can also check out other great streams of top quality entertainment, movies, TV shows, sports; you name it! However in this age of spam and scam, I understand your hesitency. In which case most of the races are also available on Youtube. So watch them and join the discussion!

Here's the embedded channel for all of you who have downloaded the Veetle Player, or you can find it on the Veetle site:

Here




A few races missing from my Veetle stream are:

Sham Stakes, won by Goldencents, embedded here:


and


Delta Downs Jackpot, taken down by Goldencents, which you can find here:

http://www.drf.com/news/delta-downs-goldencents-ends-season-high-note-jackpot-win
http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/8645340/goldencents-hits-delta-jackpot

and

River Seven scores up at Woodbine in the Grey found here:

http://www.drf.com/news/woodbine-river-seven-earns-first-career-victory-grey


Unfortunately I have not come across any video of:

The Royal Lodge, the one mile turf even from Newmarket, UK; won by Steeler by one length over Artigiano, Al Waab and Birdman.  However it appears the trainer is pointing this horse towards the UK's Racing Post Trophy.  So while it might be off our radar, watch for these other horses to ship over to the US for more Derby prep races.

First things first

Last year, over 165,000 people were on hand to witness I'll Have Another take the 138th Run for the Roses in 2:01:83, paying $32.60. Countless more watched at home on television or in betting parlors across the world, wagering an estimated $133.1 million dollars; setting the record. And while we've got a lot of catching up to do on this blog between now and the 2013 Kentucky Derby, stay tuned and I think we'll enjoy this ride together. I'll be tracking the new points system horses earn on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, previewing upcoming races on the Road, analyzing past races and trying to unlock that greatest of all American Derbies, The Kentucky Derby! I've got a few ideas for this blog and if you've got any, feel free to hit me up!

The Road goes on Forever