Wednesday, January 30, 2013

Withers, Lewis and Davis

    The experimental free handicap is now available from the Jockey club HERE.  
    Entries have been announced for the upcoming three races on the Derby Prep Trail. Again, ten points for a win are up for grabs in each of these stakes. Not too many of these horses have any points towards qualifying for the Derby except Den's Legacy and He's Had Enough from the Robert B Lewis with six and four points respectively.  Last year's Withers was taken down by Godolphin stable and Traver's co-winner Alpha.  We should eventually get some free PP's HERE

     Lets look at the line ups:


Withers S.
1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds |  G3  STAKES |  Purse: $200,000

PPHORSEJOCKEYTRAINERCLAIM $EQUIP.MED.
1Long RiverI. Ortiz, Jr. 
116 Lbs
K. McLaughlin-FTL
2ValidJ. Alvarado 
116 Lbs
K. McLaughlin-
3RevolutionaryJ. Castellano 
116 Lbs
T. Pletcher-L
4EscapefromrealityJ. Ortiz 
116 Lbs
D. Schettino-L
5Amerigo VespucciE. Rodriguez 
116 Lbs
T. Tullock, Jr.Blk-OnL
6Siete de OrosM. Remedio 
118 Lbs
R. Preciado-L
7Champion BoyE. Castro 
116 Lbs
J. Guerrero-L
8Smooth BertM. Luzzi 
118 Lbs
L. Gyarmati-L


      Early thought on the Withers is Revolutionary is the horse to beat at Aqueduct, coming off his maiden victory with a 102 Beyer.  Here he is saving ground before coming in third in Orb's maiden victory.  He just put in a great workout at Belmont speeding to four furlongs in 47.88, before galloping out to a minute flat in five furlongs, 1:13:39 in six before pulling up at the seven furlong mark, clocking in 1:28:00.  The Pletcher trainee should be bet down beyond 2/1, but he provides good value above that mark.  He most likely picks up John Velazquez as his prior mount, Ramon Dominguez has a fractured skull.
      Inside, Kieran McLaughlin has two striving for the graded stakes win.  Long River finished fourth in that Jerome behind Amerigo Vespucci and doesn't look a threat.  His stable mate and likely paired entry is Valid coming off his own maiden victory at Laurel and is untested at this distance, however finished strong, leaving the field in his wake.
      Escapefromreality will need to escape from the gate after finishing second in it's only race over six furlongs.  It's pedigree suggests it might take to the stretching out, with sire Read the Footnotes taking down a 1 mile and 1 1/16 mile race before going to stud and unraced dam Queen of the City, herself out of Medaglia d'Oro.
      Amerigo Vespucci saved ground before finishing third in that Jerome.  Looking good with some late kick as the favorite in it's maiden race over six furlongs.  His pedigree is well suited to taking down this score coming out of Henrythenavigator, a four time G1 mile winner across the pond, while finishing second in the 2008 Breeder's Cup Classic.  Keep an eye on this one.  We could get a really nice price on this one.
      Siete de Oros is coming off a great Jerome, narrowly losing to Vyjack in the a mile and 70 yards Grade 2 and will likely be the second selection of the betting public.  He has improved in distance and placing in each race and its hard to imagine him not overcoming this field to put him close to the points leaders in the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
       Champion Boy is an unraced son of Big Brown, who's only loss was the 2008 Belmont Stakes, denying him the Triple Crown.  This is a real wild card as his first offspring are only now racing, the sire won his first five races.  This should give us and idea how Big Brown debut starters run.  Let's pay attention to his workouts.
       New York bred Smooth Bert is only graded stakes winner among this bunch, with a strong close in the Damon Runyon, over taking Pletcher favorite, Notacatbutallama on a sloppy track.  However, he doesn't exactly instill you with confidence over this field.  Quotes like this from trainer Leah Gyamarti, don't instill you with confidence either “It seems like a good time to find out if belongs with that kind.  If not, we can go back to New York-breds.”  Gotta love the attitude, but it doesn't exactly scream 'this horse is a winner.'


Summary:  this very much looks like a G3 at Aqueduct in the dead of winter, a few uninspiring winners, a few unproven commodities and an over bet Pletcher horse.  As much as I think a horse needs a race to prove himself, especially to go the mile and sixteen in the Withers, but I'm not too impressed with anybody else, so why not take a shot with the Big Brown colt?  His daddy won first time out at a mile 1/16 over the turf at Saratoga and he'll likely go at a big price.  Plus, it makes a great story to bet this first timer who debuts in a stakes race to win 10 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.


I'll break down these other two stakes tomorrow, complete with history, pedigree, videos and insight.  You know how we do!


Robert B. Lewis S.
1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds |  G2  STAKES |  Purse: $200,000

PPHORSEJOCKEYTRAINERCLAIM $EQUIP.MED.
1Little JerryT. Baze 
118 Lbs
R. Baltas-L
2FlashbackJ. Leparoux 
118 Lbs
B. Baffert-L
3Den's LegacyG. Gomez 
120 Lbs
B. Baffert-L
4He's Had EnoughM. Gutierrez 
118 Lbs
D. O'NeillBlk-OnL


Sam F. Davis S.
1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds |  G3  STAKES |  Purse: $250,000
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum)

PPHORSEJOCKEYTRAINERCLAIM $EQUIP.MED.
1Silver DayM. Pedroza 
116 Lbs
W. Kaplan-L
2Divine AmbitionW. Martinez 
116 Lbs
D. Miller-L
3My Name Is MichaelJ. Rosario 
116 Lbs
W. Mott-L
4Speak LogisticsA. Serpa 
120 Lbs
E. Plesa, Jr.-L
5Lightning StoneD. Coa 
116 Lbs
W. Allyn-
6Northern LionP. Husbands 
116 Lbs
M. Casse-L
7BalinoN. Goodwin 
116 Lbs
B. Rhone-L
8Falling SkyL. Saez 
116 Lbs
J. Terranova, II-L
9Dynamic SkyL. Contreras 
116 Lbs
M. Casse-L
10Midnite PoppaJ. Lezcano 
116 Lbs
N. Zito-L

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