UPDATE: Changes - Frac Daddy and Dewey Square + 1lb, Joshua's Comprise jockey change from Kent Desormeaux to Manoel Cruz
Holy Bull Handicapping:
Weather: Looks like the weather should be great, never dropping below the dew point over night. Should be about 75 degrees, sunny with an 8 mph North Easterly wind and 53% humidity around post time. Perfect racing weather. Track should be in great shape and most likely fast on the rail as is usually the case at Gulfstream.
Favorite:
Shanghai Bobby
You know Todd Pletcher's horses are always over bet, so why should this undefeated 3 year old be any different. Pletcher is a stellar 31%, 16 for 52, with sixty day layoffs for his dirt route horses during this decade at Gulfstream Park and administers Lasix again, after the Breeder's Cup. The colt has beaten Bern Identity and Derby points leader Goldencents, while holding down second place in the Derby standings. A 4/5 morning line seems right on target, given that starters on the rail at Gulfstream win at a 20% clip, however I wouldn't touch the Harlan's Holiday colt at odds of less than 2/1. There are only two questions:
1. Is this too early for Bobby to come back from winning in the Breeder's Cup? No way, right? You may think twice after reading this article.
2. Have the other two year olds caught up with Shanghai Bobby now that they are all three year olds? For this answer we will have to wait for the post parade.
This will be only the second time Shanghai Bobby takes on a route of two turns after squeaking out this score over He's Had Enough at Santa Anita. Here's his last race the Breeder's Cup Juvenile:
I believe he can be beat. And the time is now.
Contenters:
Frac Daddy - this distance running son of Scat Daddy looks like a classic presser. Sits off the pace waiting for the stretch before making a move. The pace should set up nicely for this colt, but if the pace is blistering, Daddy could find him self shuffled back in this ten horse field. However, jockey David Cohen has been inept this season at Gulfstream and trainer Ken McPeek is only scoring at 15% with a layoff of 46-90 days. There do not seem to be many favorable angles, except Frac Daddy's damsire is three time Horse of the year, Skip Away. However he should be a nice price and in the mix.
Bern Identity - this grandson of Storm Cat got a rough trip in the Delta Downs Derby, also a Derby Prep Race, getting bottled up on the turn and racing five wide, finishing 1 3/4 lengths off Derby points leader Goldencents. Watch the replay, if the race were even a few yards longer, the Bernstein colt would have caught the winner. He does possess early and tactical speed and could press Shanghai Bobby and the early leaders or come from off the pace for a big stretch run. Trainer Kelly Breen has won a Belmont but isn't a big name and 6% over 92 record for graded stakes tell you why.
Dewey Square - has like many of his opponents not raced in two months, is out of Bernardini, himself out of A.P. Indy. Trainer Dale Romans just won his first Eclipse award, but it ain't because of Dewey Square, not yet. Dewey's going to need slow fractions to set up before finishing strongly, an unlikely scenario in this race. He ran a bullet 59 seconds over five furlongs just six days ago. Romans is cranking this horse up to compete in this race. However he ran a bullet just before the Kentucky Jockey Club and still lost, albeit by 1 1/2 lengths, finishing third behind Frac Daddy.
Wild Cards:
Itsmyluckyday - this Lawyer Ron colt ran the best last race pippng Sr. Quisqueyano by 6 3/4 lengths over a mile here at Gulfstream in the Gulfstream Derby (youtube vid), much his best race. If you're trying to beat Shanghai Bobby, look no further; and should he repeat his last performance, we're looking at a genuine Derby Contender. An overlay at future odds of 65/1. However if you think he's due for a bounce off that personal best, you're like me.
Sr. Quisqueyano - that sizzling hot pace in the Gulfstream Derby should be repeated today. So if you like the fact that Itsmyluckyday drew off for a monster figure from this colt, yet this guy ran still ran respectably and possibly coasted down the stretch, then you are going to get a nice price. He does get a ride from veteran Joel Rosario and this small time trainer rates pretty well in stakes races.
Fredericksburg - I really like this colt in this spot, IF this race were run on turf, given his pedigree. But if you're going to get 30/1 on a Michael Matz/John Velazquez collaboration out of Speightstown with Dynaformer for a damsire, that little handicapper in the back of your head tells you, you gotta take it. He might go for the lead with blinkers on for the first time. If he does, he's toast.
Also Ran:
Joshua's Comprise - Finished fourth by 20+ lengths in that Gulfstream Derby, having lost to to the same company before. Only one win in his career, poor jockey stats, poor trainer stats, poor speed figures, poor outside post win percentage. Loooong shot!
Tulira Castle - won his last race, a 75k optional claimer now steps up to a grade three stakes race. Not a crazy jump in class, but I don't think you can call this a grade three running field. This is for a shot in the Derby. In over his head.
Clearly Now - gets a good rider change and the transition from Woodbine synthetic to dirt is an angle I do like. However if he's tiring over the distance on that springy synthetic as he did in his last race up in Canada, he's really going to crap out on the dirt. Looks like a sprinter and I'd bet him if they shorten him up. But in this race he just looks to spoil things with a nuclear pace. But he might like Florida this time of year. It sure beats Toronto!
Breakdown:
Given the number of front runners in this race (Shanghai Bobby, Clearly Now, Tulira Castle and possibly Bern Identity) and their bleeding edge speed, you'd have imagine the pace will melt down, however with no real deep closing threats, your winner will most likely come from just off the pace to over take a tired pack. Itsmyluckyday might be that horse, but I think he's due for a bounce off that great performance in the Gulfstream Derby.
My Pick:
Call me crazy, but I think Sr. Quisqueyano walks away a graded stakes winner. Good jock, good trainer in graded stakes, very good speed figs. A cheap colt they threw in the deep end, who took awhile to swim. He clearly took it easy down the stretch in that Gulfstream Derby, finishing 5 1/2 lengths in front of the show horse and yet still ran well. The pace should be similar in this race and it looks like he's able to keep up on a blistering pace and take over. Spending most of his time at Calder the Florida humidity shouldn't be a factor. And you are going to get a monster price.
Holy Bull Handicapping:
Weather: Looks like the weather should be great, never dropping below the dew point over night. Should be about 75 degrees, sunny with an 8 mph North Easterly wind and 53% humidity around post time. Perfect racing weather. Track should be in great shape and most likely fast on the rail as is usually the case at Gulfstream.
Favorite:
Shanghai Bobby
You know Todd Pletcher's horses are always over bet, so why should this undefeated 3 year old be any different. Pletcher is a stellar 31%, 16 for 52, with sixty day layoffs for his dirt route horses during this decade at Gulfstream Park and administers Lasix again, after the Breeder's Cup. The colt has beaten Bern Identity and Derby points leader Goldencents, while holding down second place in the Derby standings. A 4/5 morning line seems right on target, given that starters on the rail at Gulfstream win at a 20% clip, however I wouldn't touch the Harlan's Holiday colt at odds of less than 2/1. There are only two questions:
1. Is this too early for Bobby to come back from winning in the Breeder's Cup? No way, right? You may think twice after reading this article.
2. Have the other two year olds caught up with Shanghai Bobby now that they are all three year olds? For this answer we will have to wait for the post parade.
This will be only the second time Shanghai Bobby takes on a route of two turns after squeaking out this score over He's Had Enough at Santa Anita. Here's his last race the Breeder's Cup Juvenile:
I believe he can be beat. And the time is now.
Contenters:
Frac Daddy - this distance running son of Scat Daddy looks like a classic presser. Sits off the pace waiting for the stretch before making a move. The pace should set up nicely for this colt, but if the pace is blistering, Daddy could find him self shuffled back in this ten horse field. However, jockey David Cohen has been inept this season at Gulfstream and trainer Ken McPeek is only scoring at 15% with a layoff of 46-90 days. There do not seem to be many favorable angles, except Frac Daddy's damsire is three time Horse of the year, Skip Away. However he should be a nice price and in the mix.
Bern Identity - this grandson of Storm Cat got a rough trip in the Delta Downs Derby, also a Derby Prep Race, getting bottled up on the turn and racing five wide, finishing 1 3/4 lengths off Derby points leader Goldencents. Watch the replay, if the race were even a few yards longer, the Bernstein colt would have caught the winner. He does possess early and tactical speed and could press Shanghai Bobby and the early leaders or come from off the pace for a big stretch run. Trainer Kelly Breen has won a Belmont but isn't a big name and 6% over 92 record for graded stakes tell you why.
Dewey Square - has like many of his opponents not raced in two months, is out of Bernardini, himself out of A.P. Indy. Trainer Dale Romans just won his first Eclipse award, but it ain't because of Dewey Square, not yet. Dewey's going to need slow fractions to set up before finishing strongly, an unlikely scenario in this race. He ran a bullet 59 seconds over five furlongs just six days ago. Romans is cranking this horse up to compete in this race. However he ran a bullet just before the Kentucky Jockey Club and still lost, albeit by 1 1/2 lengths, finishing third behind Frac Daddy.
Wild Cards:
Itsmyluckyday - this Lawyer Ron colt ran the best last race pippng Sr. Quisqueyano by 6 3/4 lengths over a mile here at Gulfstream in the Gulfstream Derby (youtube vid), much his best race. If you're trying to beat Shanghai Bobby, look no further; and should he repeat his last performance, we're looking at a genuine Derby Contender. An overlay at future odds of 65/1. However if you think he's due for a bounce off that personal best, you're like me.
Sr. Quisqueyano - that sizzling hot pace in the Gulfstream Derby should be repeated today. So if you like the fact that Itsmyluckyday drew off for a monster figure from this colt, yet this guy ran still ran respectably and possibly coasted down the stretch, then you are going to get a nice price. He does get a ride from veteran Joel Rosario and this small time trainer rates pretty well in stakes races.
Fredericksburg - I really like this colt in this spot, IF this race were run on turf, given his pedigree. But if you're going to get 30/1 on a Michael Matz/John Velazquez collaboration out of Speightstown with Dynaformer for a damsire, that little handicapper in the back of your head tells you, you gotta take it. He might go for the lead with blinkers on for the first time. If he does, he's toast.
Also Ran:
Joshua's Comprise - Finished fourth by 20+ lengths in that Gulfstream Derby, having lost to to the same company before. Only one win in his career, poor jockey stats, poor trainer stats, poor speed figures, poor outside post win percentage. Loooong shot!
Tulira Castle - won his last race, a 75k optional claimer now steps up to a grade three stakes race. Not a crazy jump in class, but I don't think you can call this a grade three running field. This is for a shot in the Derby. In over his head.
Clearly Now - gets a good rider change and the transition from Woodbine synthetic to dirt is an angle I do like. However if he's tiring over the distance on that springy synthetic as he did in his last race up in Canada, he's really going to crap out on the dirt. Looks like a sprinter and I'd bet him if they shorten him up. But in this race he just looks to spoil things with a nuclear pace. But he might like Florida this time of year. It sure beats Toronto!
Breakdown:
Given the number of front runners in this race (Shanghai Bobby, Clearly Now, Tulira Castle and possibly Bern Identity) and their bleeding edge speed, you'd have imagine the pace will melt down, however with no real deep closing threats, your winner will most likely come from just off the pace to over take a tired pack. Itsmyluckyday might be that horse, but I think he's due for a bounce off that great performance in the Gulfstream Derby.
My Pick:
Call me crazy, but I think Sr. Quisqueyano walks away a graded stakes winner. Good jock, good trainer in graded stakes, very good speed figs. A cheap colt they threw in the deep end, who took awhile to swim. He clearly took it easy down the stretch in that Gulfstream Derby, finishing 5 1/2 lengths in front of the show horse and yet still ran well. The pace should be similar in this race and it looks like he's able to keep up on a blistering pace and take over. Spending most of his time at Calder the Florida humidity shouldn't be a factor. And you are going to get a monster price.
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