Thursday, February 28, 2013
Gotham Stakes Previews and PPs
MY GOTHAM PREVIEW
Well, not much more can be said about the upcoming Gotham Stakes at the Big A this weekend. Now that the Kentucky Derby prep races have reached the "Derby Championship Series" and points available for qualification for the Derby skyrockets, 50 points to the winner in Saturday, look for every horse, jockey and trainer to pull out all the stops until they reach the top. So let's dive into this year's field Grade 3 Gotham Stakes!
FAVORITE
Overanalyze - hasn't raced in three and a half months, workouts show a sharpened tool. People are exclaiming over the post position, but Hansen won from the same 12 post in last year's version. How can you pass up Johnny V and Pletcher? The price is gonna get hammered at the windows as this is the horse to beat and if it runs like he did in the Remsen, he'll walk away with this one.
CONTENDERS
Vyjack - Undefeated in three, gets Joel Rosario for his first trip. Squeaked out a victory against Siete, et al in the Jerome. Not a terribly sharp most recent workout over 6f. However, this is one of the horses to beat.
Siete de Oros - loses blinkers, which perhaps have cost him the last two victories, the Withers and Jerome. Also saddled again by his Parx mount, Angel Arroyo, with whom they won a 6f and 1mile. Perhaps with Siete's new found early speed, losing the blinkers and returning to an old mount will be enough make third time a charm in NY or is it too much change too quickly? Trainer Preciado wins 30% off a route win 4 races back.
Escapefromreality - Lost by a neck to Revolutionary in the Withers. Trainer Schettino gets good results for 2nd time routers, winning at a 23% clip. Fired a bullet over 5f against 22 others. Saddled by aggressive rider David Cohen for the first time, however appears to be a horse that needs to be rated.
PRETENDERS
Champion Boy - 5 1/2 back from winner Revolutionary in the Withers, draws the rail this time. Doesn't appear to be too competitive against much of the same company. Unless they send him out of the gate.
Ore Pass - last race at Laurel over 7 furlongs in the Frank Whitely Jr Stakes. Has never routed. Stays with Pimentel, his Maryland rider, an angle I don't necessarily like on the 1 1/16th at Aqueduct. It's tricky to get into the quick first turn where horses bunch up, however if he rates like his last race, he should be fine.
Amerigo Vespucci - tried blinkers last race before losing to most of this field and Revolutionary, drops the blinkers. Third time's a charm? He also showed to Vyjack and Siete de Oros in the Jerome since shipping up from Maryland.
Transparent - Irad/Kiaran has been a hot combo the past two months, scoring at 57% with this horse one of those four wins. But didn't beat too much in that maiden victory, now loses blinkers. McLaughlin/Darley wins at 36% clip off a win last out.
Sky Captain - lost to Cerro by 2 1/2 lengths over 1 1/8 at Gulfstream, who finished 6th in the Fountain of Youth. Seems to get a lot of talk as a dark horse, but I don't see it.
West Hills Giant - 1st time blinkers, rider downgrade, winless trainer this meet, returning to a route. Could be a good horse if his connections made up their mind about him. There are so many unfavorable angles! But hold on to your butts, because here's a favorable one: Trainer and jockey are 5/8 the last two months! Horse also ran an impressively fast 6f in a losing effort, last time out.
WILD CARDS
Now and Then - has never routed, sired by Tiznow, so he should handle the distance just fine. Trainer McLaughlin scores 27% with first time routers. McLaughlin/Darley wins at 36% clip off a win last out. Saddled by Junior Alvarado an experienced NY vet.
Elnaawi - third career start and two perfect trips, 1st time Lasix, loses blinkers and has run on slop his first two races. McLaughlin/Shadwell score at 31% 1st off a layoff and 33% off last win. There are no unprofitable angles for Kiaran McLaughlin, except even he thinks the horse is in over his head. Is he trying to play the public? Or simply honest? Keep an eye on him in the paddock.
PACE
This race doesn't appear to have too much pace, fractions should be mid :23 and :47 or slower, putting it on an average with this distance at the 'Duct. Getting into the first turn should be interesting with a lot of horses bunching up. Both Overanalyze and Vyjack like to stalk the pace, so look for them to let Ore Pass, Transparent or possibly West Hills Giant take the lead and cruise behind. I think David Cohen will send Escapefromreality A truly paceless race scenario involves Vyjack wiring the field.
ANALYSIS
In a race without much front end pace, you can always look for hard charging closers if the front end falls apart or you can look for a good horse to walk the pace and wire the field. Since this is a stakes race with Derby points on the line, lets assume these are good horses. ;) That said any horse who wants to win this race will have to avoid trouble early and often in a twelve horse field. Who ever can handle or avoid any bumping at the gate and at the first turn should be that much better placed down the stretch. As such, I don't think the 12 pole will be that much of a disadvantage for Overanalyze, he can steer clear of any trouble and not cause a chain reaction. Going three or four wide on the first turn at this distance isn't a killer.
CONCLUSION
Without much pace, I think a lone speedster will go out and earn quick early fractions. The two favorites Overanalyze and especially Vyjack will exert themselves to keep up and eventually overtake the speedster, leading to a stretch duel. Both horses have the power to finish strong, but if the pace is set too hot, they may be vulnerable to a closer. That's why my pick is:
PICK - Siete de Oros
After just missing againt Vyjack in the Jerome and Revolutionary in the Withers now is the time for payback. Losing the blinkers allows the horse to relax early and save that energy for the backstretch. Getting his old Parx mount who will rate this horse early, but if he needs to send him, Siete has shown good early speed. A versatile horse, bought for only $2 thousand, gets his first graded stakes victory and 50 points. Which would bring his total to 52, making him the leader on the Road to the Kentucky Derby!
Sunday, February 24, 2013
Monday, February 18, 2013
Saturday, February 16, 2013
Thursday, February 14, 2013
El Camino Real Derby and Southwest
This weekend we will see contrasts in Kentucky Derby Preps in the El Camino Real Derby (Free PP's) and the Southwest Stakes. For history's sake, the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields is not a traditional derby prep, while the Southwest as a traditional prep for the Arkansas derby has seen it's share Triple Crown hopefuls tune up at Oaklawn. Jockey Russel Baze shoots for his ninth El Camino Real win on three time ungraded stakes winner and tapeta miler Zeewat. Owner and trainer of Zeewat, Hollandorfer is also seeking his sixth win as a trainer. This hometown favorite will most likely go off as the post time favorite as it has shown an aptitude for distance and Golden Gate Fields tapeta surface, but in the morning line it's second choice to one of two Bob Baffert horses, Manando. Jockey Aaron Gryder hops aboard this three year old colt out of Bluegrass Cat for the first time, who showed some talent on the synthetic down at Hollywood Park going a mile and a sixteenth, but finished well back in the Sham six weeks ago. The other Baffert horse, Carving, has shown similar ability on synthetic surface over a distance. The rail horse, Wildcat Moon is a blazing fast sprinter stretching out for the second time after just missing against Zeewat in the California Derby. If you're looking for someone to wire the field, Wildcat Moon is your guy. However, if you think Wildcat Moon and Manando will engage in a speed duel that will collapse in the stretch, Carving is your play. My longshot play is Counting Days, who finds the excellent Dennis Carr aboard; trainer Carla Gaines scores at 42% switching from dirt to all weather, showing the front end speed that could wire the field and an aptitude for synthetics. In my limited experience with Golden Gate Fields, front end speed rarely craps out. The bouncy all-weather surface isn't too deep and serves as a sort of springboard for light footed sprinting types. Heavy hooved plooders do not do well, there are no deep closers in this bunch. Look for a fast horse who can get the lead, set suicidal fractions and for them to stay there down the stretch. That said, you gotta go with the hometown boy, Russel Baze and Jerry Hollandorfer in this race. Zeewat is my pick.
The Southwest Stakes PP's have not come out yet, so I can't handicap it for you, but rest assured I'll have something up by Sunday. Enjoy the races! There are some previews below for you to enjoy.
2012 El Camino Real Derby
The Southwest Stakes PP's have not come out yet, so I can't handicap it for you, but rest assured I'll have something up by Sunday. Enjoy the races! There are some previews below for you to enjoy.
2012 El Camino Real Derby
Tuesday, February 12, 2013
Verrazano
A monster appeared on the horizon ten days ago. That monster's name is Verrazano. The son of More Than Ready soundly trounced a solid field in an allowance class race, earning himself a solid Beyer of 105 (race below). Here's a good look into his pedigree. Previously he had romped in a six 1/2 furlong sprint at Gulfstream. He was soundly pounded in the Kentucky Derby Future Wagers to as little as 9/1. Not much value this far away from the derby, for all we know this horse might never even take the starting gate, he has no points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. So trainer extraordinaire Todd Pletcher is pointing him at the Tampa Bay Derby, a Grade 2 over 1 1/16 mile for a possible 50 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. So far we know little of the competition, however there are two contenders throwing their hats in the ring. Speak Logistics placed fourth in the Sam F Davis at Tampa Bay Downs over 1 mile 1/16, so he can handle the distance. However, he finished seventh in what people are calling a weak Breeder's Cup Juvenile, which was won by Shanghai Bobby. Perhaps he's not that good, perhaps he takes another step forward off the Sam F Davis. Another, Purple Egg, the undefeated sprinter stretching out for the first time, half brother to Sam F Davis winner, Falling Sky, should set sizzling fractions. Can he rate or can he maintain those fractions? We shall see. But these two contenders should don't appear to be in the same class as Verrazano. Yet. Derby points are on the line and anything can happen between now and the start of the race, so stay tuned for more updates, previews, reviews, analysis, pedigree insight, race replays, free pp's and more on the Road to the Kentucky Derby!
Verrazano Allowance win at Gulfstream - 105 Beyer
Verrazano Allowance win at Gulfstream - 105 Beyer
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
Triple Crown Nominations
Nominations came out a few days ago and I really wanted to dive in there with some 369 horses. The real shame being Joha was not included as his minor injury may take a while to heal, his connections are pointing him to a June return, although perhaps its due to two disappointing performances in the Breeder's Cup and the Kentucky Jockey Club stakes, his first start on dirt.
Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert have 52 horses nominated between them. With two Baffert contenders finishing one-two in the Robert F Lewis at Santa Anita. Pletcher countered with two of the most impressive wins of the weekend with Revolutionary scoring in the Withers and Verazzano ran a monster 105, scoring by the length of the bridge bearing his name. That win was over a mile with fast fractions, we shall see how he takes to a longer distance, which he will need to qualify for the 139 Run for the Roses. Pletcher leads with 29 nominated horses, a few of which dominate the Derby conversation at the moment including Violence, Overanalyze, Dreaming of Julia, Delhomme, Revolutionary and Verrazano.
Eddie Kenneally may have a contender after his Honorable Dillon scored in the thrilling grade 2 seven furlong Hutcheson Stakes over favorite Forty Tales and Wes Welker's aptly named Undrafted. The son of Tapit earned a 94 Beyer for his effort, however earned no points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Unfortunately, UK colt Steeler was not nominated nor was Woodbine winner, River Seven, both with 10 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
For more of a look I suggest checking out this great read.
Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert have 52 horses nominated between them. With two Baffert contenders finishing one-two in the Robert F Lewis at Santa Anita. Pletcher countered with two of the most impressive wins of the weekend with Revolutionary scoring in the Withers and Verazzano ran a monster 105, scoring by the length of the bridge bearing his name. That win was over a mile with fast fractions, we shall see how he takes to a longer distance, which he will need to qualify for the 139 Run for the Roses. Pletcher leads with 29 nominated horses, a few of which dominate the Derby conversation at the moment including Violence, Overanalyze, Dreaming of Julia, Delhomme, Revolutionary and Verrazano.
Eddie Kenneally may have a contender after his Honorable Dillon scored in the thrilling grade 2 seven furlong Hutcheson Stakes over favorite Forty Tales and Wes Welker's aptly named Undrafted. The son of Tapit earned a 94 Beyer for his effort, however earned no points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Unfortunately, UK colt Steeler was not nominated nor was Woodbine winner, River Seven, both with 10 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
For more of a look I suggest checking out this great read.
What we saw...
I hope you all enjoyed the fantastic weekend of racing! We had some dramatic races, some really fast Beyers, but not a whole lot of surprises. And I don't think we learned too much about the horses on the Road to the Kentucky Derby in the Withers, Sam F Davis and Robert B Lewis.
The one surprise was Falling Sky wiring the field while routing for the first time. Upsetting My Name is Michael, who's name was third in the chart. Speak Logistics claimed a foul against the eventual winner for cutting him off, but the stewards threw out the appeal. If you want my opinion, even if there was a foul Speak Logistics was not thrown off too much and should have come back, if he were a genuine contender. Instead, he sheepishly crossed the finish line fourth. This win makes the three year old colt out of Lion Heart three out of four, his only disappointment was the Tampa Bay Downs Inaugual Stakes, losing to his half brother and undefeated sprinter Purple Egg. Falling Sky ran a respectable 92 Beyer for joint top Beyer this weekend in Derby Prep races with Robert B Lewis runaway winner, Flashback.
Only four horses took to the gate in this year's edition of the Robert B Lewis, guaranteeing each of them points towards qualification for the 139th Run for the Roses. In stark contrast to Kentucky Derby field, perhaps we learned the least in this race. Flashback dominated, setting the slowest half mile at Santa Anita for this meet, before easily waltzing home by five plus lengths. But it wasn't even that close. No traffic, no blinding pace, no checking, no bumping, no competition, nothing learned. Flashback didn't have to shift gears until he was ready and we all know this won't be the case on derby day. Now you could say that Flashback wasn't really urged and still earned a 92 Beyer, which is a legitimate argument, but this race amounted to little more than a strong workout for the son of Tapit. He did score in the fastest time among the three derby prep stakes of the day. Lets see what he does in either the San Felipe or Santa Anita Derby, I'm sure we'll see larger fields in both of them.
Perhaps the most impressive race run on the day earned the lowest Beyer figure. The colt out of War Pass, Revolutionary, had a revolutionary trip with jockey Javier Castellano in the Withers at Aqueduct. Trailing the field at the top of the stretch and looking at a wall of horses resembling the Lincoln Tunnel at rush hour, the odds on favorite was well restrained to the three-quarters pole. Castellano wisely saved ground, hugging the rail until he could see daylight. The only problem? There wasn't any daylight. The horses were four wide, blocking any possible moves for the Pletcher trained horse. Instead he rode Escapefromreality's butt once he popped off the rail to pursue the lead. Then rather than go three wide down the stretch, Castellano splits(!) Escapefromreality and Siete de Oros. Truly an impressive ride. They say most horses have one move, good horses have two moves and great horses have three moves. In the Withers, we saw a great horse win. He should rocket up most Derby contender lists and has been crushed down to 15/1 in the futures. It might be an overlay should he continue with a run like this. Pletcher will most likely be pointing him towards Gulfstream's Florida Derby or Fair Ground's Louisiana Derby for an extra 1/16 of a mile.
With the new Road to the Kentucky Derby points system, we're going not to see too many oddball sprinters setting a ridiculous pace. We are most likely going to see fractions like the one's set in these three stakes races. Even the pace in the Sam F Davis was rather average, albeit marginally faster than the other two. But given these three races are emblematic of how the Kentucky Derby will be run, we easily learned the most from the Withers. We learned Falling Sky can route, Flashback needs a real race and we learned Revolutionary is the real deal in his second consecutive win.
The one surprise was Falling Sky wiring the field while routing for the first time. Upsetting My Name is Michael, who's name was third in the chart. Speak Logistics claimed a foul against the eventual winner for cutting him off, but the stewards threw out the appeal. If you want my opinion, even if there was a foul Speak Logistics was not thrown off too much and should have come back, if he were a genuine contender. Instead, he sheepishly crossed the finish line fourth. This win makes the three year old colt out of Lion Heart three out of four, his only disappointment was the Tampa Bay Downs Inaugual Stakes, losing to his half brother and undefeated sprinter Purple Egg. Falling Sky ran a respectable 92 Beyer for joint top Beyer this weekend in Derby Prep races with Robert B Lewis runaway winner, Flashback.
Only four horses took to the gate in this year's edition of the Robert B Lewis, guaranteeing each of them points towards qualification for the 139th Run for the Roses. In stark contrast to Kentucky Derby field, perhaps we learned the least in this race. Flashback dominated, setting the slowest half mile at Santa Anita for this meet, before easily waltzing home by five plus lengths. But it wasn't even that close. No traffic, no blinding pace, no checking, no bumping, no competition, nothing learned. Flashback didn't have to shift gears until he was ready and we all know this won't be the case on derby day. Now you could say that Flashback wasn't really urged and still earned a 92 Beyer, which is a legitimate argument, but this race amounted to little more than a strong workout for the son of Tapit. He did score in the fastest time among the three derby prep stakes of the day. Lets see what he does in either the San Felipe or Santa Anita Derby, I'm sure we'll see larger fields in both of them.
Perhaps the most impressive race run on the day earned the lowest Beyer figure. The colt out of War Pass, Revolutionary, had a revolutionary trip with jockey Javier Castellano in the Withers at Aqueduct. Trailing the field at the top of the stretch and looking at a wall of horses resembling the Lincoln Tunnel at rush hour, the odds on favorite was well restrained to the three-quarters pole. Castellano wisely saved ground, hugging the rail until he could see daylight. The only problem? There wasn't any daylight. The horses were four wide, blocking any possible moves for the Pletcher trained horse. Instead he rode Escapefromreality's butt once he popped off the rail to pursue the lead. Then rather than go three wide down the stretch, Castellano splits(!) Escapefromreality and Siete de Oros. Truly an impressive ride. They say most horses have one move, good horses have two moves and great horses have three moves. In the Withers, we saw a great horse win. He should rocket up most Derby contender lists and has been crushed down to 15/1 in the futures. It might be an overlay should he continue with a run like this. Pletcher will most likely be pointing him towards Gulfstream's Florida Derby or Fair Ground's Louisiana Derby for an extra 1/16 of a mile.
With the new Road to the Kentucky Derby points system, we're going not to see too many oddball sprinters setting a ridiculous pace. We are most likely going to see fractions like the one's set in these three stakes races. Even the pace in the Sam F Davis was rather average, albeit marginally faster than the other two. But given these three races are emblematic of how the Kentucky Derby will be run, we easily learned the most from the Withers. We learned Falling Sky can route, Flashback needs a real race and we learned Revolutionary is the real deal in his second consecutive win.
Saturday, February 2, 2013
Revolutionary, Flashback and Falling Sky
Congratulations to Revolutionary, Flashback and Falling Sky for their victories in Kentucky Derby prep races!
Flashback looked really impressive as he drew away from the four horse field to win by about eight lengths in 1:42:95, the fastest time from each of the three Derby Prep races which were run today.
Flashback looked really impressive as he drew away from the four horse field to win by about eight lengths in 1:42:95, the fastest time from each of the three Derby Prep races which were run today.
Friday, February 1, 2013
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