El Camino Real Derby and Southwest

This weekend we will see contrasts in Kentucky Derby Preps in the El Camino Real Derby (Free PP's) and the Southwest Stakes.  For history's sake, the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields is not a traditional derby prep, while the Southwest as a traditional prep for the Arkansas derby has seen it's share Triple Crown hopefuls tune up at Oaklawn.  Jockey Russel Baze shoots for his ninth El Camino Real win on three time ungraded stakes winner and tapeta miler Zeewat.  Owner and trainer of Zeewat, Hollandorfer is also seeking his sixth win as a trainer.  This hometown favorite will most likely go off as the post time favorite as it has shown an aptitude for distance and Golden Gate Fields tapeta surface, but in the morning line it's second choice to one of two Bob Baffert horses, Manando.  Jockey Aaron Gryder hops aboard this three year old colt out of Bluegrass Cat for the first time, who showed some talent on the synthetic down at Hollywood Park going a mile and a sixteenth, but finished well back in the Sham six weeks ago.  The other Baffert horse, Carving, has shown similar ability on synthetic surface over a distance.  The rail horse, Wildcat Moon is a blazing fast sprinter stretching out for the second time after just missing against Zeewat in the California Derby.  If you're looking for someone to wire the field, Wildcat Moon is your guy.  However, if you think Wildcat Moon and Manando will engage in a speed duel that will collapse in the stretch, Carving is your play.  My longshot play is Counting Days, who finds the excellent Dennis Carr aboard; trainer Carla Gaines scores at 42% switching from dirt to all weather, showing the front end speed that could wire the field and an aptitude for synthetics. In my limited experience with Golden Gate Fields, front end speed rarely craps out.  The bouncy all-weather surface isn't too deep and serves as a sort of springboard for light footed sprinting types.  Heavy hooved plooders do not do well, there are no deep closers in this bunch.  Look for a fast horse who can get the lead, set suicidal fractions and for them to stay there down the stretch.  That said, you gotta go with the hometown boy, Russel Baze and Jerry Hollandorfer in this race.  Zeewat is my pick.
     The Southwest Stakes PP's have not come out yet, so I can't handicap it for you, but rest assured I'll have something up by Sunday.  Enjoy the races!  There are some previews below for you to enjoy.


2012 El Camino Real Derby