MY GOTHAM PREVIEW
Well, not much more can be said about the upcoming Gotham Stakes at the Big A this weekend. Now that the Kentucky Derby prep races have reached the "Derby Championship Series" and points available for qualification for the Derby skyrockets, 50 points to the winner in Saturday, look for every horse, jockey and trainer to pull out all the stops until they reach the top. So let's dive into this year's field Grade 3 Gotham Stakes!
FAVORITE
Overanalyze - hasn't raced in three and a half months, workouts show a sharpened tool. People are exclaiming over the post position, but Hansen won from the same 12 post in last year's version. How can you pass up Johnny V and Pletcher? The price is gonna get hammered at the windows as this is the horse to beat and if it runs like he did in the Remsen, he'll walk away with this one.
CONTENDERS
Vyjack - Undefeated in three, gets Joel Rosario for his first trip. Squeaked out a victory against Siete, et al in the Jerome. Not a terribly sharp most recent workout over 6f. However, this is one of the horses to beat.
Siete de Oros - loses blinkers, which perhaps have cost him the last two victories, the Withers and Jerome. Also saddled again by his Parx mount, Angel Arroyo, with whom they won a 6f and 1mile. Perhaps with Siete's new found early speed, losing the blinkers and returning to an old mount will be enough make third time a charm in NY or is it too much change too quickly? Trainer Preciado wins 30% off a route win 4 races back.
Escapefromreality - Lost by a neck to Revolutionary in the Withers. Trainer Schettino gets good results for 2nd time routers, winning at a 23% clip. Fired a bullet over 5f against 22 others. Saddled by aggressive rider David Cohen for the first time, however appears to be a horse that needs to be rated.
PRETENDERS
Champion Boy - 5 1/2 back from winner Revolutionary in the Withers, draws the rail this time. Doesn't appear to be too competitive against much of the same company. Unless they send him out of the gate.
Ore Pass - last race at Laurel over 7 furlongs in the Frank Whitely Jr Stakes. Has never routed. Stays with Pimentel, his Maryland rider, an angle I don't necessarily like on the 1 1/16th at Aqueduct. It's tricky to get into the quick first turn where horses bunch up, however if he rates like his last race, he should be fine.
Amerigo Vespucci - tried blinkers last race before losing to most of this field and Revolutionary, drops the blinkers. Third time's a charm? He also showed to Vyjack and Siete de Oros in the Jerome since shipping up from Maryland.
Transparent - Irad/Kiaran has been a hot combo the past two months, scoring at 57% with this horse one of those four wins. But didn't beat too much in that maiden victory, now loses blinkers. McLaughlin/Darley wins at 36% clip off a win last out.
Sky Captain - lost to Cerro by 2 1/2 lengths over 1 1/8 at Gulfstream, who finished 6th in the Fountain of Youth. Seems to get a lot of talk as a dark horse, but I don't see it.
West Hills Giant - 1st time blinkers, rider downgrade, winless trainer this meet, returning to a route. Could be a good horse if his connections made up their mind about him. There are so many unfavorable angles! But hold on to your butts, because here's a favorable one: Trainer and jockey are 5/8 the last two months! Horse also ran an impressively fast 6f in a losing effort, last time out.
WILD CARDS
Now and Then - has never routed, sired by Tiznow, so he should handle the distance just fine. Trainer McLaughlin scores 27% with first time routers. McLaughlin/Darley wins at 36% clip off a win last out. Saddled by Junior Alvarado an experienced NY vet.
Elnaawi - third career start and two perfect trips, 1st time Lasix, loses blinkers and has run on slop his first two races. McLaughlin/Shadwell score at 31% 1st off a layoff and 33% off last win. There are no unprofitable angles for Kiaran McLaughlin, except even he thinks the horse is in over his head. Is he trying to play the public? Or simply honest? Keep an eye on him in the paddock.
PACE
This race doesn't appear to have too much pace, fractions should be mid :23 and :47 or slower, putting it on an average with this distance at the 'Duct. Getting into the first turn should be interesting with a lot of horses bunching up. Both Overanalyze and Vyjack like to stalk the pace, so look for them to let Ore Pass, Transparent or possibly West Hills Giant take the lead and cruise behind. I think David Cohen will send Escapefromreality A truly paceless race scenario involves Vyjack wiring the field.
ANALYSIS
In a race without much front end pace, you can always look for hard charging closers if the front end falls apart or you can look for a good horse to walk the pace and wire the field. Since this is a stakes race with Derby points on the line, lets assume these are good horses. ;) That said any horse who wants to win this race will have to avoid trouble early and often in a twelve horse field. Who ever can handle or avoid any bumping at the gate and at the first turn should be that much better placed down the stretch. As such, I don't think the 12 pole will be that much of a disadvantage for Overanalyze, he can steer clear of any trouble and not cause a chain reaction. Going three or four wide on the first turn at this distance isn't a killer.
CONCLUSION
Without much pace, I think a lone speedster will go out and earn quick early fractions. The two favorites Overanalyze and especially Vyjack will exert themselves to keep up and eventually overtake the speedster, leading to a stretch duel. Both horses have the power to finish strong, but if the pace is set too hot, they may be vulnerable to a closer. That's why my pick is:
PICK - Siete de Oros
After just missing againt Vyjack in the Jerome and Revolutionary in the Withers now is the time for payback. Losing the blinkers allows the horse to relax early and save that energy for the backstretch. Getting his old Parx mount who will rate this horse early, but if he needs to send him, Siete has shown good early speed. A versatile horse, bought for only $2 thousand, gets his first graded stakes victory and 50 points. Which would bring his total to 52, making him the leader on the Road to the Kentucky Derby!
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