Three for the Road...to the Kentucky Derby

Three races take us to Louisiana, New York and Kentucky to help define the field for the 140th Run for the Roses!

DELTA DOWNS JACKPOT - Delta Downs 1 1/16m

TRIP NOTES: Breaking from the extreme outside post, Gerard Melancon had little option but to send RISE UP to the front of the pack and the bay colt out of Rockport Harbor never looked back, setting fast fractions before comfortably pulling away in the short stretch run at Delta Downs.

GOING FORWARD: You can count the number of Derby winners who wired the field on twenty two fingers or roughly 15% of winners, Winning Colors being the most recent in memory, 25 years ago.  This horse took to the Churchill Downs surface well in the Iroquois, despite finishing sixth.  RISE UP should be a pace setter come the first Saturday in May.

LAST YEAR'S WINNER: Goldencents similarly won the Jackpot on the front end before taking down the Sham and Santa Anita Derby on the derby trail.  He was eased in the Kentucky Derby, finishing 17th.  However, he is in contention for three year old of the year after winning the Breeder's Cup Mile.  I'm sure the owners of Rise Up would snatch your hand for that kind of resume.



REMSEN STAKES - Aqueduct 1 1/8m

TRIP NOTES:  Tom Durkin accurately described the pace as "dawdling," and so the eventual winner, HONOR CODE, found himself in an unusual position.  A deep closer needs a fast pace to close into.  And in this instance, HONOR CODE, the deep closer, found himself pressing the pace before taking the lead in the stretch, only to lose it to the impressive winner of the Nashua, CAIRO PRINCE.  Showing the heart of a champion HONOR CODE fought back before winning a photo finish in a head bob at the wire.

GOING FORWARD:  No horse on the derby trail has yet shown the grit and determination HONOR CODE displayed in the stretch, retaking the lead from a graded stakes winner in the final few jumps.  He's the Future Wagering favorite and this is a perfect display of his talent and that third and fourth gear which most horses can only dream about.  However, as HAVANA demonstrated in the Champagne, he can be caught, but his heart is unquestionable.

LAST YEAR'S WINNER:  OVERANALYZE wowed horse players, splitting horses before nosing out a victory in last year's edition, before taking down the Arkansas Derby.  However, despite breaking from the much coveted nine hole in the Derby, he finished 13 and a half lengths behind the winner and was no real threat.  He last raced over the summer at the Spa and hasn't touched dirt since, instead going out to stud at WinStar farms.



KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB STAKES - CHURCHILL DOWNS 1 1/16m


The National Racing Report - December 4, 2013 from NYRA on Vimeo.

TRIP NOTES: second choice, TAPITURE, breaks his maiden and earns points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby in good fashion.  This race was most effected when the scratches came out, as likely heavy favorite, ALMOST FAMOUS, scratched out.  The break was not favorable for Ricardo Santana Jr and this Tapit colt, in fact you see many maidens check out from between two horses and finish up the track.  However, TAPITURE, got sandwiched between two horses and didn't flinch, sitting between horses for most of the first half mile, before looking long shot leader, LADDIE BOY, in the eye and going right on by in the stretch, winning by a comfortable 4 lengths.

GOING FORWARD:  An impressive way to break your maiden, you couldn't ask much more from a horse on the derby trail, getting a tough break, persevering, drawing away and finishing with a nice time over the track on which the 140th Run for the Roses.  You have to imagine this would be a different race with ALMOST FAMOUS, but... shoulda, coulda, woulda!  Going forward you have to like the effort this colt gave, even if it wasn't spectacular.

LAST YEAR'S WINNER:  never made it to the gate on the first Saturday in May, but UNCAPTURED did tear up Woodbine before shipping down to Churchill and taking down the Iroquois and this race.  This year the Ontario-bred has only taken down a leg of the Canadian triple crown, but is a tough customer that has been collecting steady pay checks, most recently finishing third in the Delta Downs Mile on Jackpot Day.

BC Juvenile

BREEDER'S CUP JUVENILE - Santa Anita 1 1/16m
The 8th race on Breeder's Cup Saturday witnessed an unlikely champion.

TRIP NOTES: A tale as old as time, a rail skimming trip followed by a strong burst to the finish earned this third time starter for Bob Baffert a cool $1.8 million.  Breaking from the 4 post this colt from Street Cry allowed the fast breaking horses to zoom on by, where Martin Garcia settled into a nice pocket on the rail between the front runners and the trailing pack, until he angled out into the 2 or 3 path to find some room on the turn before returning to the rail at the top of the stretch and picking off the tiring pack of front runners.

GOING FORWARD:  This horse showed the kind of tactical speed crucial in winning events of a classic distance and similarly displayed this late kick in breaking his maiden in late August at Del Mar.  Keep an eye on this one.  Last year's winner of this event Shanghai Bobby looked a world beater but has since been retired.  However, previous winners include Hansen, Uncle Mo, Street Sense, Macho Uno, Unbridled's Song, Arazi.  Some decent company, if I do say so, however only Street Sense, this horse's half brother, has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby.

Free Ultimate Breeder's Cup PP's

Free Ultimate Breeder's Cup PP's
Santa Anita Friday 11/01/2013
R1
R2
R3
R4 - one of two i'm missing
R5
R6
R7
R8
R9
R10
R11-Arabian horses, if i find the pp's i'll post 'em but i ain't gonna sweat 'em



Free Ultimate Breeder's Cup PP's
Santa Anita Saturday 11/02/2013
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
R6
R7
R8
R9
R10
R11
R12

Free Breeder's Cup PP's

Christmas came early this year as Equibase is handing out free PP's for all the big races this upcoming Friday and Saturday for the Breeder's Cup!  Here's the link: http://www.breederscup.com/races/official-2013-pre-entries

I'll be breaking these races down tonight and over the next few days, hopefully plowing through all 14 HUGE races!  Good luck at the windows until then!

Iroquois, Front Runner, Breeder's Futurity, Champagne and Grey stakes

IROQUOIS STAKES - Churchill Downs 1/16m
As track announcer Mark Johnson tells us, the Road to the Kentucky Derby started where it will end up, Churchill Downs.  10 points to the winners of each of these races.

TRIP NOTES:  34/1 shot Cleburne recieved a perfect trip behind a blistering pace to nose out maiden, Tapiture and hard charging Smart Cover.  If you're a Beyer fig fan, the Dixie Union colt clocked a meager 69.  XD  Hard to argue that if the race were just ten feet longer Smart Cover would take the field by a length.

GOING FORWARD:  Last year's winner, Ontario-bred Uncaptured, went on to follow up with a win the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes before falling off the derby trail.  That sort of illustrates the pointlessness of the two year old races leading up the Derby, so I wouldn't take too much forward out of the race, except Smart Cover looked the best as the field fell apart in the stretch.



FRONT RUNNER STAKES - Santa Anita 1/16m

TRIP NOTES: Again a blistering pace paves the way for rail skimming trip down the backstretch before the colt from Mineshaft, Bond Holder, popped out and broke his maiden at 11/1 for trainer Doug O'Neill, earning a 78 Beyer.  Included in this field was eventual Speakeasy Stakes winner at 6F, Can the Man, the Baffert trainee appears to be serious company perhaps giving this race some weight.

GOING FORWARD:  Wearing down a large, quality field of 10 and looking great doing it, this horse appears to have a future routing, but this victory wasn't a world beater and for a speedy Santa Anita track the final time is disappointing despite the trouble-free trip.  Last year's winner, Power Broker, went on to throw a few clunkers in the Grey Gooser Breeder's Futurity and Santa Anita Derby before falling off the Derby trail and most recently took down the G2 Indiana Derby.

DIXIANA BREEDERS FUTURITY - Keeneland 1 1/16m

TRIP NOTES: Same story as the last two, the Ontario-bred son of Artie Schiller, saved ground to mow down speedy front runners on the poly at Keeneland, which is saying something, but the final fractions and final times are disappointing.  The Beyer fig earned of 70 is nothing that will get the winning team of  superstars John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher and Ken Ramsey fired up.

GOING FORWARD:  Watching this horse break its maiden at the Spa didn't instill with me any confidence and this performance is more of the same.  Given last year's winner, Joha, hasn't won a race since this one and has merely placed in ungraded stakes company, you're not looking for Seattle Slew to come out of this race.  Perhaps this March foal isn't done maturing, but I think we've seen the best this horse has to offer.



CHAMPAGNE STAKES - Belmont 1m


TRIP NOTES:  Pressing the front runner of a blistering pace, this April colt from Dunkirk, Havana, took over in the stretch and staved off a late rally from deep closer Honor Code, earning a 93 Beyer.  Honor Code spun wide and nearly got up to nip Havana at the wire and looks like the superior horse at this distance or longer, but Havana's speed is undeniable.  He had just enough gas to get the job done on the gold rail at Belmont.

GOING FORWARD:  Havana came close to breaking the Saratoga track record at 5 1/2f in his debut and followed it up with a G1 win and points on the derby trail.  This one-two finish with Honor Code foreshadows some classic duels down the road.  The NYRA two year olds appear head and shoulders above the other around country, however one turn mile at Belmont form has trouble translating to two turns at other venues.  If this horse cannot rate effectively, he'll never make a classic distance at two turns like the Derby and may be better suited to the sprints.  Either way, Todd Pletcher will have this horse well placed down the road and like most Pletcher trainees figures to go off at odds-on in a few of them.  Last year's winner needs no introduction, Shanghai Bobby, who went undefeated as a juvenile before throwing a clunker in the Florida Derby.  Pletcher put him on the shelf for six months, only bringing him back last month with a score in the Aljamin Stakes at Belmont.



GREY STAKES - Woodbine 1 1/16m

TRIP NOTES:  You'd think a G3 with derby points would attract more than a four horse field but that's what we found north of the border.  Our winner at 3/2, out of Harlan's Holiday, sat off an honest pace to easily mow down the longshot front runner and earn an 80 Beyer.

GOING FORWARD:  Ami's Holiday, showed the patience and tactical speed necessary to get this distance and even stretch out.  However, this was on Woodbine's Poly track, so who can tell how this form will translate to the dirt, but this was certainly a nice victory.  Next time out though, imagine more traffic and/or hotter pace and perhaps we have a different story.

it's been a while!

Hey all!  it's been awhile since i've posted on this blog because of time restraints, but with the Breeder's Cup around the corner, now is about the time to fire the old blog back up and start tracking next year's derby contenders as well as trying to cash a few tickets at the Cup.  You'll notice updates to all your favorite tabs, however the free pp's for every track will unfortunately be limited to the NYRA, Kentucky and California circuits.  Do not expect complete cards, but I'll do my best to get every race I can get my paws on from these tracks.  So hop in and buckle up!  This is just the first stop on the Road to the Kentucky Derby!  Let's make it a perfect trip ;)

Gotham Stakes

San Felipe Stakes

History of the Gotham Stakes

Nice piece the Mig did for NYRA on the history of the Gotham Stakes

Gotham Stakes Previews and PPs

Gotham Stakes Free PP's

MY GOTHAM PREVIEW
Well, not much more can be said about the upcoming Gotham Stakes at the Big A this weekend.  Now that the Kentucky Derby prep races have reached the "Derby Championship Series" and points available for qualification for the Derby skyrockets, 50 points to the winner in Saturday, look for every horse, jockey and trainer to pull out all the stops until they reach the top.  So let's dive into this year's field Grade 3 Gotham Stakes!


FAVORITE
Overanalyze - hasn't raced in three and a half months, workouts show a sharpened tool.  People are exclaiming over the post position, but Hansen won from the same 12 post in last year's version.  How can you pass up Johnny V and Pletcher?  The price is gonna get hammered at the windows as this is the horse to beat and if it runs like he did in the Remsen, he'll walk away with this one.


CONTENDERS
Vyjack - Undefeated in three, gets Joel Rosario for his first trip.  Squeaked out a victory against Siete, et al in the Jerome.  Not a terribly sharp most recent workout over 6f.  However, this is one of the horses to beat.

Siete de Oros - loses blinkers, which perhaps have cost him the last two victories, the Withers and Jerome. Also saddled again by his Parx mount, Angel Arroyo, with whom they won a 6f and 1mile.  Perhaps with Siete's new found early speed, losing the blinkers and returning to an old mount will be enough make third time a charm in NY or is it too much change too quickly?  Trainer Preciado wins 30% off a route win 4 races back.

Escapefromreality - Lost by a neck to Revolutionary in the Withers.  Trainer Schettino gets good results for 2nd time routers, winning at a 23% clip.  Fired a bullet over 5f against 22 others.  Saddled by aggressive rider David Cohen for the first time, however appears to be a horse that needs to be rated.


PRETENDERS
Champion Boy - 5 1/2 back from winner Revolutionary in the Withers, draws the rail this time.  Doesn't appear to be too competitive against much of the same company.  Unless they send him out of the gate.

Ore Pass - last race at Laurel over 7 furlongs in the Frank Whitely Jr Stakes.  Has never routed.  Stays with Pimentel, his Maryland rider, an angle I don't necessarily like on the 1 1/16th at Aqueduct.  It's tricky to get into the quick first turn where horses bunch up, however if he rates like his last race, he should be fine.

Amerigo Vespucci - tried blinkers last race before losing to most of this field and Revolutionary, drops the blinkers.  Third time's a charm?  He also showed to Vyjack and Siete de Oros in the Jerome since shipping up from Maryland.

Transparent - Irad/Kiaran has been a hot combo the past two months, scoring at 57% with this horse one of those four wins.  But didn't beat too much in that maiden victory, now loses blinkers.  McLaughlin/Darley wins at 36% clip off a win last out.

Sky Captain - lost to Cerro by 2 1/2 lengths over 1 1/8 at Gulfstream, who finished 6th in the Fountain of Youth.  Seems to get a lot of talk as a dark horse, but I don't see it.

West Hills Giant - 1st time blinkers, rider downgrade, winless trainer this meet, returning to a route.  Could be a good horse if his connections made up their mind about him.  There are so many unfavorable angles!  But hold on to your butts, because here's a favorable one: Trainer and jockey are 5/8 the last two months!  Horse also ran an impressively fast 6f in a losing effort, last time out.


WILD CARDS
Now and Then - has never routed, sired by Tiznow, so he should handle the distance just fine.  Trainer McLaughlin scores 27% with first time routers.  McLaughlin/Darley wins at 36% clip off a win last out.  Saddled by Junior Alvarado an experienced NY vet.

Elnaawi - third career start and two perfect trips, 1st time Lasix, loses blinkers and has run on slop his first two races.  McLaughlin/Shadwell score at 31% 1st off a layoff and 33% off last win.  There are no unprofitable angles for Kiaran McLaughlin, except even he thinks the horse is in over his head.  Is he trying to play the public?  Or simply honest?  Keep an eye on him in the paddock.


PACE
This race doesn't appear to have too much pace, fractions should be mid :23 and :47 or slower, putting it on an average with this distance at the 'Duct.  Getting into the first turn should be interesting with a lot of horses bunching up.  Both Overanalyze and Vyjack like to stalk the pace, so look for them to let Ore Pass, Transparent or possibly West Hills Giant take the lead and cruise behind.  I think David Cohen will send Escapefromreality  A truly paceless race scenario involves Vyjack wiring the field.


ANALYSIS
In a race without much front end pace, you can always look for hard charging closers if the front end falls apart or you can look for a good horse to walk the pace and wire the field.  Since this is a stakes race with Derby points on the line, lets assume these are good horses. ;)  That said any horse who wants to win this race will have to avoid trouble early and often in a twelve horse field.  Who ever can handle or avoid any bumping at the gate and at the first turn should be that much better placed down the stretch.  As such, I don't think the 12 pole will be that much of a disadvantage for Overanalyze, he can steer clear of any trouble and not cause a chain reaction.  Going three or four wide on the first turn at this distance isn't a killer.


CONCLUSION
Without much pace, I think a lone speedster will go out and earn quick early fractions.  The two favorites Overanalyze and especially Vyjack will exert themselves to keep up and eventually overtake the speedster, leading to a stretch duel.  Both horses have the power to finish strong, but if the pace is set too hot, they may be vulnerable to a closer.  That's why my pick is:


PICK - Siete de Oros
After just missing againt Vyjack in the Jerome and Revolutionary in the Withers now is the time for payback. Losing the blinkers allows the horse to relax early and save that energy for the backstretch.  Getting his old Parx mount who will rate this horse early, but if he needs to send him, Siete has shown good early speed.  A versatile horse, bought for only $2 thousand, gets his first graded stakes victory and 50 points.  Which would bring his total to 52, making him the leader on the Road to the Kentucky Derby!

Fountain of Youth

Risen Star

Southwest Stakes

El Camino Real Derby

El Camino Real Derby and Southwest

This weekend we will see contrasts in Kentucky Derby Preps in the El Camino Real Derby (Free PP's) and the Southwest Stakes.  For history's sake, the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields is not a traditional derby prep, while the Southwest as a traditional prep for the Arkansas derby has seen it's share Triple Crown hopefuls tune up at Oaklawn.  Jockey Russel Baze shoots for his ninth El Camino Real win on three time ungraded stakes winner and tapeta miler Zeewat.  Owner and trainer of Zeewat, Hollandorfer is also seeking his sixth win as a trainer.  This hometown favorite will most likely go off as the post time favorite as it has shown an aptitude for distance and Golden Gate Fields tapeta surface, but in the morning line it's second choice to one of two Bob Baffert horses, Manando.  Jockey Aaron Gryder hops aboard this three year old colt out of Bluegrass Cat for the first time, who showed some talent on the synthetic down at Hollywood Park going a mile and a sixteenth, but finished well back in the Sham six weeks ago.  The other Baffert horse, Carving, has shown similar ability on synthetic surface over a distance.  The rail horse, Wildcat Moon is a blazing fast sprinter stretching out for the second time after just missing against Zeewat in the California Derby.  If you're looking for someone to wire the field, Wildcat Moon is your guy.  However, if you think Wildcat Moon and Manando will engage in a speed duel that will collapse in the stretch, Carving is your play.  My longshot play is Counting Days, who finds the excellent Dennis Carr aboard; trainer Carla Gaines scores at 42% switching from dirt to all weather, showing the front end speed that could wire the field and an aptitude for synthetics. In my limited experience with Golden Gate Fields, front end speed rarely craps out.  The bouncy all-weather surface isn't too deep and serves as a sort of springboard for light footed sprinting types.  Heavy hooved plooders do not do well, there are no deep closers in this bunch.  Look for a fast horse who can get the lead, set suicidal fractions and for them to stay there down the stretch.  That said, you gotta go with the hometown boy, Russel Baze and Jerry Hollandorfer in this race.  Zeewat is my pick.
     The Southwest Stakes PP's have not come out yet, so I can't handicap it for you, but rest assured I'll have something up by Sunday.  Enjoy the races!  There are some previews below for you to enjoy.


2012 El Camino Real Derby 

Verrazano

A monster appeared on the horizon ten days ago.  That monster's name is Verrazano.  The son of More Than Ready soundly trounced a solid field in an allowance class race, earning himself a solid Beyer of 105 (race below).  Here's a good look into his pedigree.  Previously he had romped in a six 1/2 furlong sprint at Gulfstream.  He was soundly pounded in the Kentucky Derby Future Wagers to as little as 9/1.  Not much value this far away from the derby, for all we know this horse might never even take the starting gate, he has no points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.  So trainer extraordinaire Todd Pletcher is pointing him at the Tampa Bay Derby, a Grade 2 over 1 1/16 mile for a possible 50 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.  So far we know little of the competition, however there are two contenders throwing their hats in the ring.  Speak Logistics placed fourth in the Sam F Davis at Tampa Bay Downs over 1 mile 1/16, so he can handle the distance.  However, he finished seventh in what people are calling a weak Breeder's Cup Juvenile, which was won by Shanghai Bobby.  Perhaps he's not that good, perhaps he takes another step forward off the Sam F Davis.  Another, Purple Egg, the undefeated sprinter stretching out for the first time, half brother to Sam F Davis winner, Falling Sky, should set sizzling fractions.  Can he rate or can he maintain those fractions?  We shall see.  But these two contenders should don't appear to be in the same class as Verrazano.  Yet.  Derby points are on the line and anything can happen between now and the start of the race, so stay tuned for more updates, previews, reviews, analysis, pedigree insight, race replays, free pp's and more on the Road to the Kentucky Derby!

Verrazano Allowance win at Gulfstream - 105 Beyer

Triple Crown Nominations

Nominations came out a few days ago and I really wanted to dive in there with some 369 horses.  The real shame being Joha was not included as his minor injury may take a while to heal, his connections are pointing him to a June return, although perhaps its due to two disappointing performances in the Breeder's Cup and the Kentucky Jockey Club stakes, his first start on dirt.
    Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert have 52 horses nominated between them.  With two Baffert contenders finishing one-two in the Robert F Lewis at Santa Anita.  Pletcher countered with two of the most impressive wins of the weekend with Revolutionary scoring in the Withers and Verazzano ran a monster 105, scoring by the length of the bridge bearing his name.  That win was over a mile with fast fractions, we shall see how he takes to a longer distance, which he will need to qualify for the 139 Run for the Roses.  Pletcher leads with 29 nominated horses, a few of which dominate the Derby conversation at the moment including Violence, Overanalyze, Dreaming of Julia, Delhomme, Revolutionary and Verrazano.
    Eddie Kenneally may have a contender after his Honorable Dillon scored in the thrilling grade 2 seven furlong Hutcheson Stakes over favorite Forty Tales and Wes Welker's aptly named Undrafted.  The son of Tapit earned a 94 Beyer for his effort, however earned no points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.  Unfortunately, UK colt Steeler was not nominated nor was Woodbine winner, River Seven, both with 10 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
    For more of a look I suggest checking out this great read.

What we saw...

I hope you all enjoyed the fantastic weekend of racing!  We had some dramatic races, some really fast Beyers, but not a whole lot of surprises.  And I don't think we learned too much about the horses on the Road to the Kentucky Derby in the Withers, Sam F Davis and Robert B Lewis.
    The one surprise was Falling Sky wiring the field while routing for the first time.  Upsetting My Name is Michael, who's name was third in the chart.  Speak Logistics claimed a foul against the eventual winner for cutting him off, but the stewards threw out the appeal.  If you want my opinion, even if there was a foul Speak Logistics was not thrown off too much and should have come back, if he were a genuine contender.  Instead, he sheepishly crossed the finish line fourth.  This win makes the three year old colt out of Lion Heart three out of four, his only disappointment was the Tampa Bay Downs Inaugual Stakes, losing to his half brother and undefeated sprinter Purple Egg.  Falling Sky ran a respectable 92 Beyer for joint top Beyer this weekend in Derby Prep races with Robert B Lewis runaway winner, Flashback.
     Only four horses took to the gate in this year's edition of the Robert B Lewis, guaranteeing each of them points towards qualification for the 139th Run for the Roses.  In stark contrast to Kentucky Derby field, perhaps we learned the least in this race.  Flashback dominated, setting the slowest half mile at Santa Anita for this meet, before easily waltzing home by five plus lengths.  But it wasn't even that close.  No traffic, no blinding pace, no checking, no bumping, no competition, nothing learned.  Flashback didn't have to shift gears until he was ready and we all know this won't be the case on derby day.  Now you could say that Flashback wasn't really urged and still earned a 92 Beyer, which is a legitimate argument, but this race amounted to little more than a strong workout for the son of Tapit.  He did score in the fastest time among the three derby prep stakes of the day.  Lets see what he does in either the San Felipe or Santa Anita Derby, I'm sure we'll see larger fields in both of them.
     Perhaps the most impressive race run on the day earned the lowest Beyer figure.  The colt out of War Pass, Revolutionary, had a revolutionary trip with jockey Javier Castellano in the Withers at Aqueduct.  Trailing the field at the top of the stretch and looking at a wall of horses resembling the Lincoln Tunnel at rush hour, the odds on favorite was well restrained to the three-quarters pole.  Castellano wisely saved ground, hugging the rail until he could see daylight.  The only problem?  There wasn't any daylight.  The horses were four wide, blocking any possible moves for the Pletcher trained horse.  Instead he rode Escapefromreality's butt once he popped off the rail to pursue the lead.  Then rather than go three wide down the stretch, Castellano splits(!) Escapefromreality and Siete de Oros.  Truly an impressive ride.  They say most horses have one move, good horses have two moves and great horses have three moves.  In the Withers, we saw a great horse win.  He should rocket up most Derby contender lists and has been crushed down to 15/1 in the futures.  It might be an overlay should he continue with a run like this.  Pletcher will most likely be pointing him towards Gulfstream's Florida Derby or Fair Ground's Louisiana Derby for an extra 1/16 of a mile.
     With the new Road to the Kentucky Derby points system, we're going not to see too many oddball sprinters setting a ridiculous pace.  We are most likely going to see fractions like the one's set in these three stakes races.  Even the pace in the Sam F Davis was rather average, albeit marginally faster than the other two.  But given these three races are emblematic of how the Kentucky Derby will be run, we easily learned the most from the Withers.  We learned Falling Sky can route, Flashback needs a real race and we learned Revolutionary is the real deal in his second consecutive win.

Revolutionary, Flashback and Falling Sky

    Congratulations to Revolutionary, Flashback and Falling Sky for their victories in Kentucky Derby prep races!
    Flashback looked really impressive as he drew away from the four horse field to win by about eight lengths in 1:42:95, the fastest time from each of the three Derby Prep races which were run today.

Free PP's

Free Race of the Week :)
https://hotfile.com/dl/192088397/d522fd8/20130201023615.gpx0202r10_13.pdf.html

Free PP's for the Toboggan
Free PP's for the Withers


Free PP's for Robert B. Lewis


Free PP's for Sam F Davis

Withers, Lewis and Davis

    The experimental free handicap is now available from the Jockey club HERE.  
    Entries have been announced for the upcoming three races on the Derby Prep Trail. Again, ten points for a win are up for grabs in each of these stakes. Not too many of these horses have any points towards qualifying for the Derby except Den's Legacy and He's Had Enough from the Robert B Lewis with six and four points respectively.  Last year's Withers was taken down by Godolphin stable and Traver's co-winner Alpha.  We should eventually get some free PP's HERE

     Lets look at the line ups:

Withers S.

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds |  G3  STAKES |  Purse: $200,000

PP	HORSE	JOCKEY	TRAINER	CLAIM $	EQUIP.	MED.
1	Long River	I. Ortiz, Jr.  116 Lbs	K. McLaughlin		-	FTL
2	Valid	J. Alvarado  116 Lbs	K. McLaughlin		-
3	Revolutionary	J. Castellano  116 Lbs	T. Pletcher		-	L
4	Escapefromreality	J. Ortiz  116 Lbs	D. Schettino		-	L
5	Amerigo Vespucci	E. Rodriguez  116 Lbs	T. Tullock, Jr.		Blk-On	L
6	Siete de Oros	M. Remedio  118 Lbs	R. Preciado		-	L
7	Champion Boy	E. Castro  116 Lbs	J. Guerrero		-	L
8	Smooth Bert	M. Luzzi  118 Lbs	L. Gyarmati		-	L

      Early thought on the Withers is Revolutionary is the horse to beat at Aqueduct, coming off his maiden victory with a 102 Beyer.  Here he is saving ground before coming in third in Orb's maiden victory.  He just put in a great workout at Belmont speeding to four furlongs in 47.88, before galloping out to a minute flat in five furlongs, 1:13:39 in six before pulling up at the seven furlong mark, clocking in 1:28:00.  The Pletcher trainee should be bet down beyond 2/1, but he provides good value above that mark.  He most likely picks up John Velazquez as his prior mount, Ramon Dominguez has a fractured skull.
      Inside, Kieran McLaughlin has two striving for the graded stakes win.  Long River finished fourth in that Jerome behind Amerigo Vespucci and doesn't look a threat.  His stable mate and likely paired entry is Valid coming off his own maiden victory at Laurel and is untested at this distance, however finished strong, leaving the field in his wake.
      Escapefromreality will need to escape from the gate after finishing second in it's only race over six furlongs.  It's pedigree suggests it might take to the stretching out, with sire Read the Footnotes taking down a 1 mile and 1 1/16 mile race before going to stud and unraced dam Queen of the City, herself out of Medaglia d'Oro.
      Amerigo Vespucci saved ground before finishing third in that Jerome.  Looking good with some late kick as the favorite in it's maiden race over six furlongs.  His pedigree is well suited to taking down this score coming out of Henrythenavigator, a four time G1 mile winner across the pond, while finishing second in the 2008 Breeder's Cup Classic.  Keep an eye on this one.  We could get a really nice price on this one.
      Siete de Oros is coming off a great Jerome, narrowly losing to Vyjack in the a mile and 70 yards Grade 2 and will likely be the second selection of the betting public.  He has improved in distance and placing in each race and its hard to imagine him not overcoming this field to put him close to the points leaders in the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
       Champion Boy is an unraced son of Big Brown, who's only loss was the 2008 Belmont Stakes, denying him the Triple Crown.  This is a real wild card as his first offspring are only now racing, the sire won his first five races.  This should give us and idea how Big Brown debut starters run.  Let's pay attention to his workouts.
       New York bred Smooth Bert is only graded stakes winner among this bunch, with a strong close in the Damon Runyon, over taking Pletcher favorite, Notacatbutallama on a sloppy track.  However, he doesn't exactly instill you with confidence over this field.  Quotes like this from trainer Leah Gyamarti, don't instill you with confidence either “It seems like a good time to find out if belongs with that kind.  If not, we can go back to New York-breds.”  Gotta love the attitude, but it doesn't exactly scream 'this horse is a winner.'


Summary:  this very much looks like a G3 at Aqueduct in the dead of winter, a few uninspiring winners, a few unproven commodities and an over bet Pletcher horse.  As much as I think a horse needs a race to prove himself, especially to go the mile and sixteen in the Withers, but I'm not too impressed with anybody else, so why not take a shot with the Big Brown colt?  His daddy won first time out at a mile 1/16 over the turf at Saratoga and he'll likely go at a big price.  Plus, it makes a great story to bet this first timer who debuts in a stakes race to win 10 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.


I'll break down these other two stakes tomorrow, complete with history, pedigree, videos and insight.  You know how we do!

Robert B. Lewis S.

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds |  G2  STAKES |  Purse: $200,000

PP	HORSE	JOCKEY	TRAINER	CLAIM $	EQUIP.	MED.
1	Little Jerry	T. Baze  118 Lbs	R. Baltas		-	L
2	Flashback	J. Leparoux  118 Lbs	B. Baffert		-	L
3	Den's Legacy	G. Gomez  120 Lbs	B. Baffert		-	L
4	He's Had Enough	M. Gutierrez  118 Lbs	D. O'Neill		Blk-On	L

Sam F. Davis S.

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds |  G3  STAKES |  Purse: $250,000

Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum)

PP	HORSE	JOCKEY	TRAINER	CLAIM $	EQUIP.	MED.
1	Silver Day	M. Pedroza  116 Lbs	W. Kaplan		-	L
2	Divine Ambition	W. Martinez  116 Lbs	D. Miller		-	L
3	My Name Is Michael	J. Rosario  116 Lbs	W. Mott		-	L
4	Speak Logistics	A. Serpa  120 Lbs	E. Plesa, Jr.		-	L
5	Lightning Stone	D. Coa  116 Lbs	W. Allyn		-
6	Northern Lion	P. Husbands  116 Lbs	M. Casse		-	L
7	Balino	N. Goodwin  116 Lbs	B. Rhone		-	L
8	Falling Sky	L. Saez  116 Lbs	J. Terranova, II		-	L
9	Dynamic Sky	L. Contreras  116 Lbs	M. Casse		-	L
10	Midnite Poppa	J. Lezcano  116 Lbs	N. Zito		-	L